Boeing’s Certification Hurdle: A Self-Inflicted Delay, Says Regulator

Boeing finds itself in a familiar, yet critical, position. While its production figures climb and its order book swells, the full realization of its growth potential is being held back. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has now placed responsibility for the delayed certification of two key 737 MAX variants squarely on the manufacturer's shoulders.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford has made it clear that the timeline for certifying the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 models is entirely dependent on Boeing completing its work. The agency stated it has provided sufficient resources, but the necessary tasks must be finalized by the plane-maker itself. This declaration is significant, indicating that the holdup stems not from bureaucratic red tape but from unfinished technical and compliance work by the company. For shareholders, this translates to continued uncertainty regarding when these potentially lucrative aircraft can enter service.

In preparation for the MAX 10, Boeing is establishing a new assembly line in Everett, Washington. However, the pace of this rollout is now directly tied to resolving the certification issues.

Strong Operational Performance Amidst Challenges

Separate from its regulatory struggles, Boeing's commercial business shows marked improvement. The company recorded its best annual delivery performance since 2018 in 2025, driven by increased production rates for both the 737 MAX and the 787 Dreamliner programs. Demand remains robust, as evidenced by a strong order intake:

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Boeing?

• The company secured net orders for 1,075 aircraft in 2025, with a list value of $114.6 billion.
• A major December order came from Alaska Airlines for 105 Boeing 737 MAX 10 jets and five 787-9s.
• More recently, Ethiopian Airlines placed an order for nine 787 Dreamliners.

This sustained demand is crucial, as it supports the business case for production rates significantly higher than current levels. The central dilemma is that without certification for the MAX 7 and MAX 10, a portion of this growth potential remains locked.

Analyst Confidence Hinges on Execution

Despite the certification overhang, financial analysts are expressing growing confidence in Boeing's operational recovery. Bernstein Research named Boeing its "Top US Pick for 2026," citing measurable progress in addressing challenges within the 737 and 787 programs. UBS reaffirmed its "Buy" rating in early January, pointing to improved 787 production rates.

The focus among market experts is shifting from valuation concerns to execution. The key question is whether Boeing can sustainably ramp up its manufacturing output, as this is seen as the pathway to stronger cash flow generation and a more resilient balance sheet.

The company's shares are at an inflection point. An operational turnaround is visibly underway, but its full financial impact is contingent on how swiftly Boeing can close out these pending certifications with regulators.