Broadcom's $73 Billion AI Order Book Defies Google Chip Rumors and Dividend Milestone
23.06.2026 - 02:55:52 | boerse-global.de
The contrast could hardly be starker. Broadcom's AI business is on a trajectory that would make even the most ambitious growth stock blush — a $73 billion order backlog to be fulfilled over the next 18 months and a CEO compensation target that demands AI revenue surpass $120 billion by 2030. Yet the stock spent Monday under pressure, slipping roughly 3.5% to €346, as unconfirmed chatter about delays in Google's next-generation chip program rattled the market.
JPMorgan was quick to push back. Analyst Harlan Sur dismissed the speculation as "noise," reaffirming an Overweight rating and a $580 price target on the shares. The bank noted that Broadcom holds a technical lead of more than 18 months over Google's in-house chip development, and that a five-year contract signed in March 2026 locks in the design work for TPU generations v8 through v11 — securing revenue visibility all the way to 2031. The selloff, Sur argued, is a buying opportunity.
The rumor mill had taken aim at Google's TPU v9 program, built on a 2-nanometer process, with Broadcom as the primary design partner. Adding to the unease: reports that Google has tapped MediaTek for a special variant of the chip called "Triggerfish," which will feature additional SRAM and HBM4E memory and enter production in late 2027. MediaTek joins a roster that already includes Marvell and Intel, suggesting Google is keen to diversify its supplier base. Broadcom's market share in the AI-ASIC segment is expected to decline from roughly 95% today to around 65% by 2028 — though the absolute volume in the market continues to grow rapidly.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Broadcom?
That growth is the real story. In the second quarter of 2026, Broadcom generated $10.8 billion in AI chip revenue, a 143% surge year over year. The company guided for approximately $16 billion in AI sales in the current quarter — representing 200% growth — although some market participants had informally penciled in as much as $17.2 billion, and that expectation gap contributed to the stock's modest weakness. Gross margin is forecast to slide to 74% in the third quarter from 77.1% in the prior period, but that reflects mix shift and heavier volume rather than any fundamental deterioration.
Meanwhile, the dividend machine keeps humming. Broadcom passed its latest ex-dividend date on Friday, with the next quarterly payout of $0.65 per share due on June 30, 2026. This marks the 15th consecutive year of increases. The full-year target of $2.60 per share is a record, supported by a 10-year average dividend growth rate of 31.3%. With a payout ratio of around 40%, the company retains ample room to reinvest in its AI and networking operations.
The stock closed Monday at €343.70, roughly 20% below the all-time high of €429.60 reached on June 3. That gap is partly the result of consolidation following a stunning run: the shares have climbed about 17% since the start of the year and stand nearly 57% above the 52-week low of €219.15 touched on June 23, 2025. Adding to the near-term pressure were rising US bond yields and the scheduled rebalancing of the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 indices, factors that weighed on many high-multiple names.
J.P. Morgan has designated Broadcom its top pick in the semiconductor space, forecasting AI revenue of $55 billion to $60 billion for fiscal 2026. CEO Hock Tan's personal compensation targets go even further: they stipulate that AI sales must exceed $120 billion by fiscal 2030, up from roughly $20 billion in fiscal 2025. That is an ambitious path, and the next discrete checkpoint arrives with the third-quarter earnings report, which will show whether the $16 billion guidance holds — and how fast Broadcom is burning through that $73 billion backlog.
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