Brussels and the Bidding Floor: Delivery Hero Investors Weigh Regulatory Risk Against Uber’s Creeping Stake

The script for Delivery Hero’s takeover drama has added a second act. While Uber’s incremental share purchases have kept the stock elevated, a parallel battle is unfolding in Brussels that could determine whether any deal actually closes. The European Commission, fresh from forcing Prosus to slash its own holding last year, now faces a direct challenge to that decision — and the timing could not be more critical.

Prosus has formally asked the EU to suspend its requirement that the Dutch investor reduce its Delivery Hero stake to below 10%. The original order, issued in August 2025 as a condition for approving Prosus’s takeover of Just Eat Takeaway, gave the company until August 2026 to comply. Prosus currently holds roughly 17% of Delivery Hero, and CEO Fabricio Bloisi has publicly branded the forced sale a "big mistake" that undermines future investment in Europe. Now, with Uber actively negotiating a full takeover, Prosus argues a compulsory divestment during deal talks would be counterproductive.

The regulatory tangle only grows thicker from there. According to Jefferies, a combination of Uber and Delivery Hero would overlap in 22 markets, nine of them in Europe. DoorDash, another interested party, would face overlap in 18 markets, 14 of them European. The Jefferies note warns of "a host of antitrust questions to resolve," with no guarantee of clearance even if a joint bid with a carve-up of assets is pursued.

Uber has already built a substantial position without triggering a mandatory offer. Its stake now stands at 36.83% of shares, while voting rights are capped at 24.99% — just below the threshold that would force a full bid. The company paid just under €40 per share for the Aspex management block, well above its initial indicative offer of €33. Several other major shareholders are now holding out for more than €40, and one reportedly rejected an improved Uber approach at €38.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Delivery Hero?

The stock’s recent history illustrates the gap between market expectations and the floor. Delivery Hero shares closed Friday at €36.44, down 6.4% on the day, pulling back from the all-time high of €39.85 struck on May 27. Despite that correction, the 30-day gain remains near 90%, and the current price sits 143% above the 52-week low of €14.99 recorded in March.

Analysts remain deeply divided over fair value. UBS removed its conglomerate discount entirely and raised its price target from €32 to €45, maintaining a buy rating. Jefferies sees upside to €42.50. On the other side, MWB Research downgraded from buy to hold with a €33 target, while Oddo BHF moved to underperform from neutral. The spread — from €33 to €45 — reflects the uncertainty over both price and outcome.

On the operational front, Delivery Hero continues to deliver numbers that support the bull case independent of M&A. First-quarter revenue rose 17.8% year-on-year to €3.7 billion, and gross merchandise value increased 8.8% in constant currency to €12.5 billion. Quick commerce proved the standout, with GMV growth of 30%, now accounting for 18% of total group revenue. Management has guided for full-year adjusted EBITDA in the upper half of the €910 million to €960 million range.

Uber’s financial firepower has also improved. Fitch upgraded the company’s long-term rating to A- from BBB+ on May 28, citing stronger profitability in the delivery segment and a projected free cash flow of roughly $9 billion for 2026. That gives Uber additional capacity to sweeten its offer.

The next hard deadline is Delivery Hero’s annual general meeting on June 23 in Berlin. Investors will be watching for three signals: whether Uber formally improves its bid, whether any large shareholders shift their stance, and whether a sale of Middle East assets — Talabat, HungerStation, or Yemeksepeti — moves closer. DoorDash has already contacted shareholders about those assets but has not made a formal proposal.

Delivery Hero at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Niklas Östberg, who returned as interim CEO after stepping down earlier this year, will continue to lead the strategic review. The supervisory board aims to name a permanent successor by the end of 2026, with Östberg set to exit no later than March 31, 2027.

Three variables will dictate Delivery Hero’s trajectory from here: the final bid price, the outcome of Prosus’s appeal to the European Commission, and the depth of the antitrust review that will inevitably follow a binding offer. The coming weeks promise clarity on at least one of those fronts.

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Delivery Hero Stock: New Analysis - 1 June

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