Buybacks Offer Support, But Novo Nordisk’s Path Hinges on ADA Data

Novo Nordisk’s investors are counting down to next week’s American Diabetes Association scientific sessions in New Orleans, where the Danish drugmaker will unveil Phase?3 results from its CagriSema programme. The data, drawn from the REIMAGINE trial series, could provide the clearest signal yet on whether the fixed-dose combination of semaglutide and the amylin analogue cagrilintid can reignite the GLP?1 growth story that has lost much of its momentum. The company is scheduled to host an R&D investor day on 7?June to walk analysts through the findings.

Yet for all the pipeline excitement, Novo Nordisk has been quietly supporting its shares through a steady repurchase programme. Between 26 and 29?May, the group bought back 840,151 B?shares across four trading days, shelling out 242.7?million Danish kroner. The latest tranche, launched on 6?May, now totals 3.13?million shares worth just over 913?million kroner. That tranche forms part of a broader framework authorising buybacks of up to 11.2?billion kroner until February?2027, itself a slice of the annual 15?billion?kroner programme that kicked off in February.

The buyback has meaningfully reduced the free float. Novo Nordisk now holds 35.07?million B?shares in treasury, equivalent to 0.8?% of the total share capital of 4.465?billion A? and B?shares. Since February, the company has repurchased roughly 17.9?million B?shares at an average price of 263.47?kroner, for a cumulative outlay of 4.71?billion kroner. At that pace, less than a third of the annual programme has been consumed, leaving ample firepower for further purchases.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Despite the buyback commitment, the stock remains under heavy pressure. The shares closed at €36.84, some 47?% below the 52?week high of over €70 and roughly 42?% lower than a year ago. The recent bounce from the March trough of €30.48 has pushed the relative strength index to 71.6, putting the stock in technically overbought territory in the short term. The forward price?to?earnings multiple has slumped to around 10.3, a steep discount to the lofty valuations of 2024, as the market prices in intensifying competition in the obesity and diabetes space.

Much of the bearish sentiment stems from the bumpy financial outlook. Novo Nordisk raised its 2026 guidance in May, but the adjusted sales growth forecast still ranges from a contraction of 4?% to a decline of 12?% — a reset year after the GLP?1 explosion. First?quarter figures underscored the mixed picture: net sales of 96.8?billion kroner jumped 32?% on a currency?adjusted basis, but adjusted sales in Danish kroner fell 10?%, and adjusted operating profit dropped 15?% to 32.9?billion kroner. Management has labelled it a transition year, and the buyback alone cannot mask the growth deceleration.

On the commercial front, Novo Nordisk early this month launched a reformulated version of its oral semaglutide tablets in the U.S., marketed under the Ozempic brand for type?2 diabetes. The new strengths — 1.5?mg, 4?mg and 9?mg — are bioequivalent to the existing Rybelsus doses but in a smaller tablet. A higher 25?mg version awaits an FDA decision expected by the end of 2026. The dividend for the 2025 financial year was set at 11.70?kroner per share, offering a modest yield for income?focused holders. Ultimately, the near?term narrative rests on the ADA data. If CagriSema delivers a compelling efficacy and safety profile, it could give the beleaguered shares the catalyst they need. Until then, the buyback serves as a dependable floor, but it will take pipeline proof to restore the market’s confidence.

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