BYD Narrows Toyota’s Lead in Australia as Export Surge Powers a 14% Weekly Rally — But the Profit Wound Is Still Open

The equity rebound at BYD has been as steep as the contradictions underlying it. Shares climbed more than 14% in a single week to trade at €9.43, recovering from a 52-week low of €8.03 touched in late June. The immediate catalyst was a record monthly sales number: roughly 403,000 new-energy vehicles delivered in June, the second consecutive month of year-on-year growth. The market rewarded that headline with a single-day jump of nearly 9%.

Yet beneath the volume story lies a profit story that refuses to cooperate. BYD has now posted four straight quarters of falling earnings, and in March price discounts across its domestic lineup reached a two-year high. The Chinese EV market itself is shrinking — it contracted for the sixth straight month in June — and industry-wide margins have been crushed to 3.2%. Only BYD, Xiaomi and Leapmotor remain profitable in that environment.

The tension is visible in the half-year numbers. Total NEV sales for the first six months came in at 1,808,511 units, a decline of 15.72% from the same period a year earlier. But within that total, overseas deliveries surged 70.65% to 792,256 units. June alone saw a record 175,349 vehicles sold outside China, up 94.73% year on year, with exports now accounting for 43.46% of the month’s total volume.

That overseas expansion is rewriting the competitive map — especially in Australia. BYD delivered about 52,000 vehicles in the country during the first half of 2026 (the article's time frame), a 124% jump that made it the second-best-selling automotive brand. In June, it sold nearly 19,000 vehicles, chipping the once-dominant leader Toyota down to a lead of barely 243 units. The Sealion 7 SUV has been a major driver of that charge.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?

Analysts are taking notice. UBS raised its price target for BYD from 128 to 135 Hong Kong dollars and kept its buy rating, arguing the company can beat its own export targets for the year. The bank’s optimism stands in contrast to Goldman Sachs’ view on the electronics subsidiary BYD Electronic, which was downgraded to "sell" with a sharply reduced target of 21 Hong Kong dollars.

But the export machine still has to prove it can compensate for the domestic slowdown. In June, BYD’s home-market sales fell 22.02% to 228,123 units. The export momentum is real — May also set a record of 160,644 units, up 80.4% — yet the cumulative half-year sales total remains negative. Broader industry pressures are structural, not cyclical: in July 2025, BYD recorded its first year-on-year production decline in 16 months and cut shifts at some plants as the domestic price war escalated.

For now, the stock is riding the export wave. The 50-day moving average sits at €9.93, about 5% above the current price, and the 200-day average is at €10.76. The relative strength index of 56.6 suggests the oversold condition has faded without flipping into overbought territory. Still, the year-to-date loss stands at 12.55%, and the share is still 35.27% below the 52-week high of €14.80 set in July 2025.

BYD at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The next test will come with monthly sales reports and the next quarterly earnings. If export margins are strong enough to offset the domestic drag, the rally has room to run. If the home-market price war persists and domestic volumes stay in double-digit decline, the profit streak of four falling quarters could lengthen — and the rebound could stall.

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BYD Stock: New Analysis - 6 July

Fresh BYD information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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