BYD Pushes into Brazil and Autonomy While Export Forecast Hits 1.5 Million by 2026

The diverging forces acting on BYD have rarely been more stark. At the Hong Kong close on May 31, the company’s H-shares fetched HK$91.30, barely above their 52-week low and miles from the HK$143.60 peak seen over the same period. Yet beneath that tepid valuation, the Chinese electric-vehicle giant is making aggressive moves that point to a very different trajectory: a hefty Brazilian factory, a stepped-up export target, and a multi-billion-dollar pivot toward autonomous driving.

The most tangible sign of BYD’s outward push is taking shape in Camaçari, Brazil, on the former Ford site. The company is pouring around 5.5 billion reais into the facility, which will handle full production — from body stamping and welding to painting — starting next year. Initial annual capacity is set at 150,000 vehicles, with plans to double that to 300,000. The plant will be the first in the world to produce a plug-in hybrid with flex-fuel technology, capable of running on either ethanol or gasoline. BYD expects it to create roughly 20,000 jobs and operate entirely on renewable energy.

That industrial bet is part of a broader export push that is already reshaping BYD’s sales mix. Overseas deliveries soared 70.9% in April to 134,542 units, while the first four months of the year saw 455,707 vehicles leave China — a 60% jump from the same period in 2025. Management has now raised its 2026 export forecast to 1.5 million, up from an earlier 1.3 million, and JPMorgan sees domestic sales reaching 3.5 million to 4 million, implying growth of up to 13% that would exceed most analyst estimates.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?

Back in China, however, the picture is far less rosy. April domestic sales of 321,123 units were up 6.96% from March but down 15.51% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of annual declines. Cumulative in-country sales in the first four months slipped to just over one million vehicles, a 26.4% drop from the prior-year period. Against that backdrop, the Datang SUV launch on June 8 — originally scheduled for late May — has become a crucial test. The SUV, priced between 250,000 and 320,000 yuan, boasts BYD’s second-generation Blade battery, a 950-kilometer range, a 1,000-volt architecture, and megawatt-level charging at up to 1,000 kW. The company has already logged over 100,000 pre-orders in two weeks, and CEO Wang Chuanfu has acknowledged that demand for the Blade Battery 2.0 is outstripping current production capacity.

On the technology front, BYD is shifting focus away from the price wars that have dogged the sector. Morgan Stanley noted a strategic pivot among Chinese EV makers from June 2026, with BYD committing 100 billion yuan — about $13.8 billion — to R&D in AI-powered autonomous driving. The company’s in-house “God’s Eye” driver-assistance system is already active across three million vehicles spanning more than 60 models. Internal data shows severe accidents have dropped to one-sixth of the level experienced by human drivers, as the system processes 190 million kilometers of driving data daily and updates its algorithms every three days. While BYD has partnered with Huawei on the Fangchengbao Bao 8 model, the company is determined to maintain control of its software ecosystem, prioritizing its own DiPilot technology and aiming for a “zero accident” standard through integrated electronic and powertrain architectures.

Separately, in Malaysia, BYD will launch the refreshed Atto 3 on June 5. One version uses an 800-volt architecture with a 74.8-kWh battery, offering 510 kilometers of WLTP range and 220 kW DC charging speed.

Shareholders have two near-term events to watch. The annual general meeting in Shenzhen on June 9 will vote on the 2025 financial statements and a guarantee framework of up to 150 billion yuan for subsidiaries. The ex-dividend date for the proposed final dividend for 2025 is June 11, with a yield of just 0.44%. Analysts remain broadly bullish: the average price target stands at HK$124.57, and 26 of the 27 covering the stock rate it a buy. Whether the Datang launch, May sales data, and the AGM can close the gap between that target and the current share price will become clearer over the next two weeks.

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