BYD’s Export Record Masks Deepening Home-Market Woes as Hungarian Plant Nears Production

BYD halted an eight-month slide in May sales, but the revival is built on shaky ground. The Chinese EV giant delivered 383,453 new energy vehicles last month, a meagre 0.26% year-on-year gain and a 19.4% jump from April’s depressed level. Yet the headline number masks a brutal bifurcation: domestic deliveries collapsed 24% to 222,809 units—the 13th consecutive monthly drop—while exports hit a record 160,644 units, soaring 80.4% from a year earlier. International markets now account for 42% of total sales, a share that underscores just how dependent BYD has become on overseas demand to offset a weakening home market.

The export surge is the sole engine of growth. Without it, BYD’s May tally would have been deeply negative. Even with the boost, the cumulative picture remains bleak: from January to May, the company sold 1.405 million EVs and hybrids, a 20.3% slump compared with the same period in 2025. That performance leaves BYD far short of its annual target of 5.0 to 5.5 million units. To scrape the lower end of that range, it would need to average 517,000 deliveries per month for the rest of the year—nearly double the current run rate of 276,000.

Inside the product mix, the recovery is equally lopsided. Global passenger-vehicle sales came in at 376,990 units, virtually flat year-on-year. Pure battery-electric vehicles actually fell 2.8% to 198,674 units, while plug-in hybrids climbed 3.3% to 178,316 units. The May rebound therefore owes more to demand for its PHEVs than to any renewed appetite for full EVs.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?

With trade barriers looming in Europe and the US, BYD is racing to localise production. Its first European car plant, in Szeged, Hungary, has begun test runs, with series production slated for the second quarter of this year at an initial annual capacity of 150,000 units. In Indonesia, a $1 billion factory is due to come online in the third quarter. The company is also rolling out new technology: the Sealion 06 DM-i, the first model to carry the fifth-generation Dual-Mode hybrid system, promises a combined range of up to 1,845 kilometres.

The May trough in domestic sales follows a disastrous first quarter. Net profit plunged 55.4% to 4.08 billion yuan, battered by a vicious price war in China and rising supplier costs. The stock reflected the ambivalent mood: BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares closed at HK$90.75 on 1 June, down 0.6% on the day and roughly 4.8% lower year-to-date. Investors may welcome the end of the sales slide, but until the Chinese market shows a genuine turnaround—rather than a repeat of reliance on exports to paper over weakness at home—the stock is likely to remain in limbo.

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