Central Banks Add 244 Tonnes of Gold as Chinese Retail Doors Slam Shut — Can the $4,000 Floor Hold?
26.06.2026 - 03:36:42 | boerse-global.de
Bullion is caught in an increasingly vicious tug-of-war. Official institutions are hoarding gold at a record pace — net purchases hit 244 tonnes in the first quarter alone, the strongest quarterly tally in five years — yet the metal keeps sliding. At $4,046.70 an ounce, it has shed 10.22% over the past month and sits 28.08% below its all-time high. The 52-week low of $3,901.30 is now within striking distance, and a break below that level could trigger a fresh wave of selling.
The bearish forces are formidable. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a distinctly hawkish tone after his first FOMC meeting on June 16–17, leaving rates at 3.50%–3.75% and signaling at least one more hike this year — nine of the 18 committee members backed that view. Interest-rate futures now price in a better than 60% probability of an increase in September. A stronger dollar and rising opportunity costs are directly weighing on gold, which offers no yield. At the same time, the preliminary US–Iran agreement signed on June 17 has eased geopolitical risk: it opens the door for sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, damping safe-haven demand and inflationary pressure from energy markets.
Adding structural headwinds from Asia, several Chinese banks are pulling the plug on retail gold trading. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) will halt the service from July 2026, citing extreme volatility and stricter risk controls. The move threatens to drain a significant source of demand from the world’s largest bullion consumer just as the metal is already struggling.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
The divergence between institutional buying and retail retreat is reflected in the wide gap between analyst forecasts. Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 year-end target nearly 10% to $4,900 on June 19, citing a Fed that it believes will not cut rates next year. Deutsche Bank slashed its third-quarter forecast by 22% to $4,300, though it expects a rebound to $4,800 in the fourth quarter. At the opposite end, JPMorgan has trimmed its 2026 average to $5,243 but still sees gold finishing the year around $6,000, with some analysts projecting $6,300 by end-2027. The gulf between the pessimists and the optimists has rarely been so wide.
Technically, the chart paints a grim picture. The relative strength index at 33 indicates oversold conditions, but the price remains far below both its 50- and 100-day moving averages. With a robust US economy — Q1 GDP was revised sharply higher and core inflation accelerated to 3.4% in May — the Fed has little reason to pivot soon. A survey by the World Gold Council published on June 16 shows 45% of the 76 central banks polled plan to increase reserves over the next 12 months, the highest reading in the survey’s nine-year history. That structural buying provides a floor, but against the combined weight of a hawkish Fed, a resurgent dollar, geopolitical détente, and a chilling of Chinese retail demand, it may not be enough to prevent gold from punching through $3,900 first.
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