Circus SE’s Revenue Forecast Wiped Out by 90%; Insider Buys and Ukraine Deployment Fail to Stem the Bleeding
Published on 07/22/2026 at 16:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Circus SE is reeling from one of the most brutal sell-offs in its history after slashing its 2026 revenue outlook by more than 90%, sending shares into a tailspin that has erased roughly two-thirds of their value in a month. The stock now trades at €2.03, having shed 66.83% over 30 days and another 1.69% in the latest session alone. The trigger was a July 16 corporate filing that effectively dismantled the growth narrative that had underpinned the Berlin-based robotics company’s valuation.
The revised guidance is nothing short of catastrophic. Circus now expects 2026 revenue of just €5.2 million, down from a prior range of €44 million to €55 million. The EBITDA outlook has also deteriorated sharply, swinging from a projected loss of €6 million to €8 million to a far wider deficit of roughly €17 million. The company blamed a significantly slower-than-expected rollout of its cooking robot systems, according to reports from 4investors and dpa-AFX. The new numbers stand in stark contrast to the audited 2025 annual report published in late June, which showed revenue of €1.5 million — up from €0.25 million a year earlier — and an adjusted EBITDA loss of €15.3 million. The 2026 forecast was supposed to mark a leap forward; instead, it has exposed just how far the business model remains from scalable execution.
Analysts responded with aggressive downgrades. On July 17, mwb research maintained its “Speculative Buy” rating but slashed its price target from €46.00 to €8.40, citing the magnitude of the guidance cut. Montega AG went further, downgrading the stock from “Buy” to “Hold” on July 20 and cutting its target from €10.00 to €2.20. Both revisions came within days of the announcement and underscore how completely the reduced growth outlook has upended the company’s valuation.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Circus?
The sell-off has been relentless. The stock lost 58.19% in just seven days, and the Relative Strength Index has plunged to 14.8, signaling deeply oversold conditions. Yet amid the carnage, Chairman Dr. Jan-Christian Heins stepped in on July 20 to buy shares worth €10,757.85 at an average price of €2.15 — a modest insider purchase that has done little to reassure markets.
Compounding the uncertainty, Circus is undergoing a leadership shake-up. Christian Bauer, formerly of Daimler and Volocopter, took over as CFO and Co-CEO on July 6, replacing Fabian Becker, who moved to the supervisory board of subsidiary Circus Defence SE. The management reshuffle comes at a critical juncture as the company tries to navigate its way out of the crisis.
On the operational front, there are glimmers of progress, though they have failed to move the needle on the stock. On July 16, Circus launched live operations of autonomous meal preparation systems for the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Ground Forces near Kyiv, following regulatory certification. The deployment is part of a framework agreement for up to 25 robotic systems. Earlier, on July 2, the company completed its acquisition of Belgian food-robotics firm Alberts, integrating its compact robotic solutions into Circus’s portfolio. In April, it had also finalized the takeover of U.S.-Israeli company K-Robotics, a move designed to accelerate entry into the U.S. market and secure more than 30 patents in supply robotics.
Investors now have two key dates on the calendar. The annual general meeting is set for August 20 as a virtual event, followed by Circus’s participation in the 15th Baader Investment Conference in Munich on September 21. Both events are expected to provide more detail on the company’s revised strategy following the guidance implosion and leadership changes. With a current market capitalization of €55.87 million, the market has already priced in a dramatically scaled-down future — one where the gap between ambition and execution has never been wider.
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