Circus SE’s Revenue Milestone Masks Deep Market Skepticism as Production Ramp and Defense Shift Take Shape

Circus SE ended 2025 with its first real commercial revenue on the books, yet the market has greeted the achievement with little enthusiasm. The stock now trades at €7.59, down 37% year-to-date and roughly 53% below its level twelve months ago. While the company hit a critical turning point by transitioning from research to industrial production, the share price remains more than two-thirds below the 52-week high of €22.80 — a gap that underscores the tension between operational progress and investor caution.

Revenue reached approximately €1.5 million for the full year, compared with just €0.25 million in 2024, as system deliveries began in the fourth quarter after four years of development. Adjusted EBITDA came in at minus €15.3 million, widening from €11.9 million in the prior year. On an unadjusted basis, the loss deepened to €18.5 million, weighed by one-off charges from acquisitions and capital measures. Management characterizes the growing losses as a byproduct of heavy upfront spending on series production, global supply chains, and specialized AI acquisitions — the classic “invest now, harvest later” playbook.

The ramp of the CA-1 kitchen system is central to Circus’s near-term outlook. In partnership with Celestica, the company has slashed manufacturing time from eight weeks to roughly four. After building 16 units in the first quarter, Circus plans to scale stepwise to 64 units per month by the fourth quarter, yielding a total annual capacity of 304 units. Modelled demand stands at 205 units, but the gap between ambition and certainty remains wide: the company counts 500 firm orders from around 40 customers, but thousands of non-binding pre-orders and a lack of confirmed follow-on orders from existing pilots leave a significant hole.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Circus?

To accelerate adoption, Circus is rolling out a leasing model that could dramatically shorten sales cycles — which the company estimates could contract by up to 70%. Customers can access the autonomous systems from €4,000 per month with no upfront investment, under partnerships with MMV Leasing (a Landesbank Baden-Württemberg subsidiary) and Siemens Financial Services. Previously, partners such as REWE, Mercedes-Benz gastronomy, and the Bundeswehr only ran pilot phases. Management expects the removal of large upfront costs to convert a much higher share of these trials into full rollouts.

Defence has emerged as a faster-than-expected growth pillar. Since obtaining NATO certification in August 2025, Circus has entered serious discussions with more than ten NATO member states, including Poland, Italy, and other Eastern European countries. The company has also acquired the US-Israeli firm K-Robotics, accelerating its entry into North America, and integrated the agentic AI technology from Fully AI. First US deployments are now slated for the second half of 2026, earlier than originally planned, with revenue from military applications already flowing this year.

For all the progress, the disconnect between pre-orders and binding contracts remains the central question. The forthcoming audited annual report, due by the end of June 2026, will provide concrete production data that the market is waiting for. Management has set a revenue target of €44 million to €55 million for 2026 — a steep climb that would require a massive acceleration in serial output and conversion of pilot relationships into lasting revenue streams. And in August, the annual general meeting will offer more detail on the scaling plan, including the theoretical maximum capacity of up to 6,000 units per year.

Until then, Circus is caught between two narratives: one of a genuine operational breakthrough that positions it for the next phase, and another of a stock that has given back most of its pandemic-era gains and still needs to prove it can turn ambition into cash. The June report — paired with the production ramp in the second half — will be the definitive test.

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