Commerzbank Hikes Profit Target and Pledges Almost Full Payout as Ownership Fight with UniCredit Escalates
Published on 07/18/2026 at 04:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Commerzbank’s shares have fallen back from their recent peak even after management raised the full-year net profit forecast and promised to return nearly all earnings to shareholders. The stock closed at €36.66 on Friday, shedding 3.25% on the day and landing 6.43% below the 52-week high of €39.18 hit just on July 14. Despite the still-strong year-to-date gain of 29.40%, the market’s focus has clearly shifted to the creeping control of Italian lender UniCredit and the German government’s softening stance on a potential tie-up.
The Frankfurt-based bank now targets net profit of at least €3.4 billion for 2026, up from a previous goal of more than €3.2 billion. For the 2026–2028 period, Commerzbank intends to distribute almost 100% of earnings after deducting AT1 coupons, split between dividends and share buybacks. The upgrade, announced just weeks before the release of half-year results, is meant to underscore management’s confidence in the standalone “Momentum 2030” strategy and to counter the takeover bid from UniCredit.
That bid, which concluded in early July, netted the Italian bank just 17.6% of Commerzbank’s shares through acceptance. But given UniCredit’s existing holdings, it now controls 44.4% of the German lender. Including call options, the stake could rise to 47.59%, pending regulatory approval for the transfer of voting rights. Commerzbank has repeatedly called the offer inadequate, noting that less than 2% of the tendered shares came from independent institutional or retail investors, with the bulk originating from parties close to UniCredit itself.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
In a significant policy shift, Berlin is now preparing for negotiations with UniCredit. Bloomberg reported that the German government is drawing up a list of demands, focusing on the preservation of Commerzbank’s Mittelstandsgeschäft (corporate banking for mid-sized firms), safeguarding the Frankfurt headquarters, and maintaining the independence of the Commerzbank stock listing. Chancellor Friedrich Merz had previously signalled his administration would not block a merger, marking a clear departure from the earlier stalinch opposition under the previous government. No concrete meeting date has been set, but talks are expected to begin soon.
Against this backdrop, several analysts reiterate their bullish assessments from mid-July. Deutsche Bank Research affirmed a “Buy” rating and a €42 target on July 15, citing strong net interest income prospects and an anticipated new buyback programme. A day earlier, RBC Capital Markets kept its “Outperform” rating with a €43 target. Both calls predated the formal profit upgrade but align with management’s more optimistic tone.
Commerzbank is also pressing ahead with cost discipline and digitalisation. In early July it announced the integration of Google Cloud Gemini Enterprise and Microsoft 365 Copilot into daily operations, aiming to boost efficiency. These technological investments support the margin improvements baked into the higher profit guidance.
The next major catalyst comes on August 6, when Commerzbank reports second-quarter and first-half results. CEO Bettina Orlopp and CFO Carsten Schmitt will present the figures in an analyst webcast, where investors will scrutinise whether the upgraded guidance is already reflected in the numbers and what shape the promised distribution plan will take. With UniCredit tightening its grip and Berlin preparing to negotiate, the quarterly update will be closely watched for any hints of how the stand-off might evolve.
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