Commerzbank Resistance Hardens as Retail Investors Snub UniCredit's Extended Offer
26.06.2026 - 18:45:03 | boerse-global.de
UniCredit's three-week extension of its Commerzbank tender offer to July 3 does not reflect patience — it signals a struggle the Italian lender is losing. Commerzbank's management has published a blistering breakdown of the acceptance data, arguing that the 12.51% level claimed by Milan is almost entirely artificial. According to CEO Bettina Orlopp’s letter dated June 26, roughly 11.17 percentage points of that figure come from banks and derivatives counterparties engaged in hedging transactions, leaving independent institutional holders at a mere 1.29%. Among Germany’s more than 500,000 retail investors, the uptake is barely measurable at 0.05%.
The Berlin government remains a formidable obstacle. Holding around 12% of Commerzbank shares directly, the state has refused to tender its stake, citing Unicredit's aggressive tactics and what it considers an inadequate offer price. That block alone denies Unicredit a clear majority, regardless of the extended deadline. Even if the Italian bank were to accumulate more shares, the regulatory capital implications are severe: Autonomous Research analysts calculate that full consolidation would dent Unicredit’s CET1 ratio by 6.5 to 7.0 billion euros, crimping future dividends and making its own equity less attractive as exchange currency in the tender.
A secondary distraction has emerged on Unicredit’s home turf. Crédit Agricole has steadily accumulated a nearly 30% stake in Banco BPM, forcing Andrea Orcel’s team to keep one eye on the Italian domestic market while pursuing the German target. This defensive maneuver by the French lender adds another layer of complexity to an already crowded chessboard.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
The stock market, meanwhile, has largely ignored the standoff. Commerzbank shares closed Thursday at €37.48, within striking distance of the 52-week high of €38.85, and comfortably above the 50-day moving average of €36.40. Over the past twelve months the stock has returned roughly 38%, while year-to-date the gain is closer to 40% — a performance that bolsters Commerzbank’s case for independence.
The crucial deadline now is July 3, when Unicredit must either improve its terms or watch its offensive founder against a shareholder base that has shown little appetite for the deal. Official final results are expected on July 8, with Commerzbank’s second-quarter earnings due on August 6. Strong numbers from Orlopp would only reinforce the message Frankfurt is already firing at Milan: this bank is not for sale at the current price.
Ad
Commerzbank Stock: New Analysis - 26 June
Fresh Commerzbank information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
