Commerzbank's Operating Profit Hits €1.4bn as UniCredit's Below-Market Bid Fails to Lure Shareholders
Veröffentlicht: 03.06.2026 um 11:42 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
The German lender is walking a tightrope between a thriving underlying business and the persistent shadow of a hostile suitor. While the bank reported a robust first quarter that prompted an upgraded full-year outlook, the stock market mood has turned cautious — and not just because of Middle East tensions. UniCredit’s accumulated 34.35% stake, carefully managed to avoid a mandatory full takeover offer, is drawing a tepid response from shareholders who see little reason to tender their shares at a discount.
Commerzbank shares touched a fresh four-week high of €37.66 on Tuesday, gaining 1.8% and confirming a bullish technical signal. But the momentum reversed sharply on Wednesday, with the stock slipping 0.83% to €36.86, as the broader DAX index dropped around 0.6%. The slide was driven by crude oil’s push toward $100 a barrel and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which weighed disproportionately on financial and auto stocks. Deutsche Bank fell roughly 1.6% in sympathy. Despite the pullback, Commerzbank’s 52-week high of €37.75 is still only 2.4% away, and the stock trades comfortably above its 200-day moving average of €33.71 — a 9% cushion.
The fundamental case for the stock remains solid. In the first quarter, the bank posted an operating profit of €1.4 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, and management raised its net income guidance for 2026 to at least €3.4 billion. Net interest income is expected to land around €8.6 billion, with total income of roughly €13.2 billion. The CET-1 ratio is projected to exceed 14% by year-end. This gives existing shareholders little incentive to accept UniCredit’s paper-for-paper bid, which offers 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share — a discount to the current market price. Both the management board and the supervisory board have advised against accepting the offer.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
UniCredit’s stake, which passed the 30% threshold on a derivative-adjusted basis, still leaves it far from control. About 14% of its exposure is held via derivatives, some convertible into equity, others purely for hedging. Chief Executive Bettina Orlopp has warned that a full takeover would lead to far more drastic job cuts than initially feared — up to 11,000 positions instead of 3,000 — and noted that UniCredit remains active in Russia, adding geopolitical risk.
The acceptance period for the exchange offer runs until 16 June, with a possible extension to 3 July. If UniCredit’s holding edges toward 40%, the European Central Bank could demand a full takeover bid. The German federal government, which still holds about 12% of Commerzbank, opposes the hostile approach. Without a significant improvement in the offer’s terms, UniCredit remains a long way from gaining a controlling stake. The next major data point for the bank is the second-quarter earnings release scheduled for 6 August.
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