Commerzbank’s Standalone Revival Outshines UniCredit’s Feeble Tender
28.06.2026 - 15:33:58 | boerse-global.de
The battle for Commerzbank is playing out in two very different arenas. On the one hand, UniCredit’s take-it-or-leave-it offer has generated little more than a shrug, with barely 1% of retail and institutional shares tendered at the end of the regular acceptance period on June 16. On the other, the bank’s own stock has climbed to within 3% of its 52-week high, closing Friday at €37.68 — a gain of roughly 39% over the past twelve months. The message from the market is clear: investors are pricing in Bettina Orlopp’s “Momentum 2030” strategy, not a foreign takeover.
The Commerzbank chief executive made a final push on June 26, urging shareholders to reject the Italian bank’s €37.68 per share bid. She argued that neither the price nor the approach is adequate, a stance backed by the German government, which holds the second-largest block of shares and has publicly refused to tender. With the extended acceptance window closing on July 3, any last-minute change to the offer is off the table, according to the bank. UniCredit plans to publish the final result on July 8, but the early numbers look grim: it claims a 12.51% acceptance rate, but Commerzbank insists the bulk came from connected banks, not independent investors.
That disconnect between UniCredit’s headline figure and reality is partly explained by the strength of Commerzbank’s own narrative. The bank’s first-quarter 2026 results delivered a sharp rise in operating profit, prompting management to raise its full-year net income guidance. The “Momentum 2030” framework — built on higher returns on equity, an improved cost-income ratio, and heavy investment in digitalisation and artificial intelligence — gained further credibility at the May annual general meeting, where shareholders approved authorisations for share buybacks. Dividends and capital returns are slated to rise steadily.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Technically, the stock sits comfortably above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the relative strength index of 57.1 suggests the rally is not yet overbought. Yet the near-term ceiling of €38.85 — the 52-week high touched on June 19 — remains a test. Commerzbank’s management believes that the takeover drama will fade of its own accord once the July 3 deadline passes without a significant tender. After that, the focus shifts squarely to operational delivery.
The next major checkpoint arrives on August 6, when Commerzbank releases its second-quarter results. A repeat of the Q1 performance would likely push the stock past its high, while any miss could puncture the optimism that has been built up over the past year. A third-quarter report is due on November 5, but by then the takeover affair should be firmly in the rear-view mirror.
There are risks, of course. The ambitious targets set by “Momentum 2030” stretch until 2030, and the macroeconomic environment — credit losses, margin pressure, and the cost of technology investments — could easily derail the trajectory. The bank’s own transformation plan acknowledges that efficiency gains from digitalisation and AI will take time to materialise. For now, however, Orlopp has managed to convince both the market and a vast base of retail holders that Commerzbank’s prospects are brighter as an independent institution than as a piece of UniCredit’s European jigsaw.
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