Commerzbank’s Stock Climbs While UniCredit’s Bid Falls Flat at 1.1% Uptake

UniCredit already controls nearly 39% of Commerzbank, yet barely any other shareholder wants to join them. The Italian lender’s formal tender offer has drawn just 1.1% acceptance — a figure that lays bare the central tension in one of Europe’s most-watched banking battles.

The bid values each Commerzbank share at 0.485 new UniCredit shares, which on May 28 translated to €34.56. That same day, the Frankfurt-listed stock changed hands at €36.79. By Friday’s close, the gap had widened further: Commerzbank settled at €36.91, good for a 0.63% daily gain and a roughly 39% advance over the past 12 months. Handing over paper at a discount to the market price is hardly an inviting proposition, and the acceptance rate has barely budged from the 0.02% recorded in mid-May.

UniCredit’s actual grip on the German lender is far larger than the tender suggests. Its direct stake stands at 26.77%, while another 12.10% is held through total return swaps, bringing the total to 38.87%. The formal offer period has been stretched to July 3, a move market participants read as acknowledgment of the slog ahead. Speculation persists that UniCredit could sweeten the terms if its own shares breach the €80 mark, but no official revision has been floated.

Commerzbank’s management is using the breathing room to push its stand-alone case. First-quarter operating profit jumped 11% year-on-year to €1.4 billion, and net income climbed 9% to €913 million. The bank raised its full-year net profit forecast to at least €3.4 billion, underpinned by an interest income that held steady at €2 billion despite lower benchmark rates. The “Momentum 2030” strategy targets a return on tangible equity of 21% by the end of the decade — a figure the board argues goes beyond what UniCredit can realistically offer.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?

Shareholder sentiment remains firmly behind the current management. At the annual general meeting, a stunning 99.88% of votes backed a €1.10 per share dividend. A more unusual item also passed: the compensation of former chief executive Manfred Knof was slashed by 30% after an undisclosed meeting with UniCredit boss Andrea Orcel came to light. The cut sends a strong signal about governance standards, even after Knof’s departure.

Barclays Capital affirmed its “Overweight” rating on the stock with a €42 price target, citing an attractive risk-reward profile that factors in both a potential offer sweetener and Commerzbank’s independent strategy. The analysts see limited downside given the current valuation gap.

The bank’s US equity portfolio, valued at roughly $4.78 billion, underwent a notable reshuffle in the quarter. Microsoft overtook Alphabet as the largest single holding after the position was increased by 21.45%. The move reflects a tactical bet on the tech giant’s relative strength.

Commerzbank at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Technically, the stock may be running hot. The relative strength index hit 72.5 on Friday, nudging into overbought territory. Chart technicians have defined a trading corridor between €31.00 and €38.00 for the next four weeks, with the 52-week high of €37.75 acting as immediate resistance. That ceiling sits just 84 cents above the current price, leaving limited headroom unless the bulls push through.

The Bund, which holds roughly 12% of Commerzbank, has signaled it will neither deploy defensive measures nor increase its stake, leaving the outcome entirely in shareholders’ hands. Commerzbank is set to present its investment case at a Goldman Sachs event on June 4, followed by second-quarter numbers on August 6. Daily acceptance updates will be released in the final week leading to the July 3 deadline. If the current trend persists, the takeover won’t founder on regulatory ground — it will simply be priced out of the market.

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