Commerzbank’s Takeover Battle Enters a New Phase as Berlin Signals No Block
Published on 07/17/2026 at 06:14 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Friedrich Merz has shifted the political tone around Commerzbank in a way that may matter more than any single trading session. Speaking at his summer press conference on 16 July 2026, the chancellor said: “Wir verhindern nicht diese Fusion” — Germany will not prevent the merger UniCredit is pursuing.
That is a marked change from Berlin’s previous insistence that the Frankfurt lender remain independent. The federal government still holds more than 12 percent of Commerzbank, making it the bank’s second-largest shareholder behind UniCredit and, at least in theory, a potential obstacle to a later squeeze-out. But Merz made clear that outright resistance is no longer the government’s line.
He did, however, attach conditions. The bank’s business model should be reviewed, he said, and financing for Germany’s Mittelstand must not suffer. Berlin is also looking for commitments on loans to small and medium-sized companies and on job preservation. Merz voiced reservations about the way UniCredit chief Andrea Orcel has handled the process, but not about the takeover itself.
UniCredit has already built a substantial position. After its offer, it controls 47.6 percent of Commerzbank’s capital. Including cash-settled derivatives, its economic stake rises to 59.07 percent. Formally, no further approval from the German government is required for the next step. A merger control filing with the European Commission is expected in September, while the European Central Bank still has to decide whether UniCredit may increase its direct holding beyond the 30 percent threshold. That ECB decision is expected in the coming three to six months.
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The political thaw came on the same day S&P Global Ratings cut its outlook on Commerzbank from positive to stable. The agency affirmed the bank’s long-term rating at A and its short-term rating at A-1, saying the change reflected the expected integration of Commerzbank into the UniCredit group. UniCredit’s own outlook remains positive.
Market reaction was restrained. Commerzbank shares last closed on Thursday at EUR 37.82, putting them 2.02 percent down for the week. The stock sits 3.47 percent below the 52-week high of EUR 39.18, reached on 14 July 2026. In a separate move, the shares were quoted at EUR 37.90, down 0.73 percent on the day and 3.27 percent below that same peak. The modest declines suggest investors had already largely priced in Berlin’s softer stance after months of signaling around the takeover process.
The share price is holding up despite the mixed backdrop from earlier in the summer. UniCredit’s takeover offer drew only 17.60 percent acceptance, with the take-up rate among independent institutional and private investors below 2 percent. Internal analysis at the start of June had already shown that no institutional investor had accepted the offer. Commerzbank has used that result to reinforce its own strategy, saying it will continue to implement “Momentum 2030” and create value on its own.
Investor sentiment has also been supported by the company’s capital policy. In May, shareholders approved a dividend of EUR 1.10 per share for the 2025 financial year, almost double the EUR 0.65 paid the year before. They also authorized a new buyback mandate allowing the board to retire up to 10 percent of share capital. The previous 2026/I repurchase program was completed in March, with the bank buying back a little over 15.6 million shares, equivalent to around 1.39 percent of share capital, for a total of EUR 524 million.
Operationally, Commerzbank is also pressing ahead with changes of its own. Starting in 2026, it will gradually switch its credit cards from Mastercard to Visa Classic, following a partnership agreed in 2025. Customers affected by the move must actively agree to the change; otherwise, their existing card could be cancelled when it expires. Mastercard will remain available in the premium account.
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Analysts have not turned against the stock either. Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its Buy rating in a study released in mid-July. Separately, the bank said earlier this month that it had expanded AI partnerships with Google and Microsoft, including the use of Gemini Enterprise and Microsoft 365 Copilot to streamline internal processes.
The next major checkpoint comes on 6 August, when Commerzbank is due to publish second-quarter and first-half 2026 figures. That update will be watched closely for evidence that the bank’s standalone strategy still has the operational strength to justify the market’s current patience — even as the takeover process moves toward its next regulatory stage.
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