Commerzbank Shares Test Overbought Territory as Market Rejects UniCredit’s All-Share Offer
Veröffentlicht: 14.05.2026 um 21:12 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gap between Commerzbank’s stock price and the value of UniCredit’s hostile bid continues to widen, underscoring investor scepticism that the Italian lender can secure enough acceptances. At Thursday’s close, Commerzbank shares stood at €36.48, having gained 0.8% on the day and nearly 40% over the past twelve months. That leaves the all-share offer from UniCredit – effectively worth around €31 per share based on the current swap ratio – trading at a discount of more than 15%.
Analysts are increasingly looking past the takeover drama to the bank’s underlying momentum. Deutsche Bank Research raised its price target on the stock from €40 to €42 on Wednesday, keeping a “Buy” rating. Analyst Benjamin Goy pointed to solid first-quarter numbers and ambitious medium-term plans as justification for the upgrade. JPMorgan followed suit on Thursday, lifting its target from €36 to €37, albeit maintaining a “Neutral” stance due to the unresolved strategic uncertainty. RBC Capital Markets is more bullish, setting a target of €43 with an “Outperform” recommendation.
The upward revisions reflect a broader reassessment of Commerzbank’s standalone prospects. The lender has set a minimum net profit target of €3.4 billion for the current financial year and rolled out its “Momentum 2030” strategy, a blueprint that has won praise from several City analysts for its clarity and ambition. Yet the technical picture hints at a market that may be overheating: the relative strength index has climbed to 83.3, firmly into overbought territory, suggesting some of the recent rally could be driven by speculative flows rather than fundamental conviction alone.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
At the heart of the standoff is the offer itself. UniCredit is proposing to exchange 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share, with no cash component. The all-stock structure means accepters assume the full risk of future movements in UniCredit’s own stock, a factor that appears to weigh heavily on investor appetite. Commerzbank’s management has been openly critical of the offer, describing it as vague and laden with execution risks. In a statement expected soon under the German Securities Acquisition and Takeover Act, the board will formally lay out its reasoning while urging shareholders to reject the proposal.
To reinforce its case for independence, Commerzbank has unleashed an aggressive capital return plan. For the 2025 financial year, the board is proposing a dividend of €1.10 per share, up sharply from €0.65 in the prior year. That equates to a total payout of around €1.2 billion. Management has also completed two share buyback programmes between September 2025 and March 2026, returning a further €1.5 billion to shareholders. Combined, the bank looks set to hand back roughly €2.7 billion for the year, a powerful argument that value can be unlocked without an acquisition.
The next major test comes on 20 May, when Commerzbank holds its annual general meeting in Wiesbaden. Among the items on the agenda are the dividend proposal and a fresh authorisation for share buybacks of up to 10% of the share capital. Approval of these measures would not only reward shareholders directly but also erect another tactical hurdle for UniCredit, making the alternative of staying independent even more attractive.
UniCredit’s challenge is now clear: it must convince Commerzbank investors to accept an offer that trades well below the current market price, while the target’s own performance continues to justify a higher valuation. With the AGM less than two weeks away and the board expected to deliver a damning assessment of the bid, the window for a friendly deal – if one was ever possible – appears to be closing fast.
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