Defence Giant CSG’s 65% Rout Lures Bargain Hunters as €17 Billion Order Book Tests Market Sentiment
Veröffentlicht: 30.06.2026 um 11:33 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Two Czech investors have taken the plunge on Czechoslovak Group shares while the stock wallows within a whisker of its 52-week low. Michal Semotan revealed he started buying at €17 a pop and has been adding ever since, while Filip Kejla has also built a position. Their bet: the market has overshot the downside. So far, the charts are not cooperating — CSG changed hands at €12.73 recently, just 4.34% above the record low of €12.20 touched on 26 June. The drop from the January peak of €36.05 amounts to almost two-thirds of the company's market value.
Yet the fundamental backdrop tells a very different story. First-quarter 2026 revenue hit €1.544 billion, up 13.8% year on year, while operating EBIT rose 8.7% to €372 million. The order book has swelled to €17 billion from €15 billion at the end of 2025. Management is guiding for full-year revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.6 billion with an operating EBIT margin of 24–25%, driven mainly by land systems and ammunition. Production capacity for large-calibre rounds is being ramped to around 850,000 units by end-2026, compared with 550,000 last year, with an additional 400,000 units coming from reactivated lines.
The technical picture, though, remains deeply wounded. The 50-day moving average sits at €16.36 — more than 22% above the current price — and the 100-day average is even higher at €22.15. Short sellers have not let up. Dutch market regulator AFM lists a net short position of 0.60% from Qube Research & Technologies as of 22 June, just past the 0.5% reporting threshold. The relative strength index (RSI) is 34, barely out of oversold territory, and the annualised 30-day volatility has hit nearly 57%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying CSG?
CSG’s market dominance in primers — controlling roughly 70% of Western production after the $2.2 billion acquisition of Vista Outdoor’s Kinetic Group — is both a strength and a vulnerability. The deal, which included brands such as Federal, Remington, CCI and Speer, passed CFIUS review and won 97.89% shareholder approval. But rising raw-material costs are squeezing margins, and a strike at the Lake City plant in April 2026 worsened supply bottlenecks. Production shortfalls have come at exactly the wrong moment, when defence demand is surging.
The confidence deficit traces back to a disputed article from Hunterbrook Media. CSG rejected the report as selective and misleading, noting that Hunterbrook Capital, the associated investment vehicle, held a disclosed short position. The row has never been resolved, and it hangs over every earnings release. For now, the bull case rests on execution: if CSG delivers against its own guidance and fixes the production snags, the short-seller narrative loses credibility. A miss — or further transparency hiccups — would leave the stock without obvious technical support below €12.20. The next quarterly numbers will carry an outsized weight.
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