Delivery Hero's Derivative Chessboard: Price Tension Mounts as Uber Circles
Veröffentlicht: 03.06.2026 um 07:02 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Shares in the Berlin-based food delivery group are trading at €38.13 — a full 15.5% above Uber’s indicative offer of €33 per share, announced via ad-hoc on 23 May. The gap signals deep market skepticism that a deal will be struck at that level, even as the ride-hailing giant methodically builds its direct stake. Since the start of 2026, Delivery Hero stock has surged roughly 67%, more than doubling from its 52-week low in March.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley Take Opposite Sides
The recent flurry of voting rights disclosures reveals two distinct strategies among the US investment banks. Goldman Sachs has expanded its total position to 15.48%, with the latest notification dated 2 June showing a jump from 15.10%. Nearly the entire exposure — 15.23 percentage points — is held through derivatives: a "Right To Recall" (4.57%), a "Right Of Use" (5.52%), call options (almost 2%), plus warrants, swaps, and a convertible bond. Only 0.25% represents direct voting rights. This is a portfolio designed for flexibility, not a strategic equity bet.
Morgan Stanley has been scaling back. A 1 June filing, reflecting positions as of 26 May, puts its total at 16.21%, down from 17.92%. Derivatives still dominate at 14.45%, with direct shares accounting for 1.76%. The contrasting moves are typical of the hedging and trading adjustments that intensify during a potential takeover scenario.
Uber Creeps to 25% Threshold — Prosus Gets Breathing Room
Uber now holds 24.99% of Delivery Hero, just under the 25% level that would trigger a blocking minority under German law. Reports suggest Uber acquired the block from former major shareholder Aspex at just under €40 per share — well above its own indicative offer. The next critical tipping point is 30%, which would legally force a mandatory bid for all outstanding shares.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Delivery Hero?
A wildcard in the power struggle is Prosus. The Dutch tech investor was ordered by the European Commission to reduce its stake to a single-digit percentage, with an original deadline in August. However, Prosus has received an extension, buying it time to influence the outcome of any Uber offer. Jefferies analyst Giles Thorne sees the delay as a move to preserve European tech sovereignty, effectively giving Prosus leverage to push for a higher price or an alternative deal.
Analyst Views Diverge Wildly, Baemin Looms
The stock’s stability masks a wide range of analyst expectations. Jefferies rates Delivery Hero a "Buy" with a €42.50 target, betting on industry consolidation. JPMorgan is more cautious: "Overweight" but with a €28 target. LBBW and MWB Research both rate it "Hold" at €33, essentially valuing the equity as a pure takeover speculation play. The €28–€42.50 spread highlights the fundamental uncertainty over who will ultimately own the company and at what price.
Adding another layer, Delivery Hero is reviewing its portfolio separately. South Korean subsidiary Baemin is considered a valuable asset that could strengthen the parent’s negotiating hand. A final decision on the future majority owner is expected in the second half of 2026.
Delivery Hero at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Key Dates Ahead
The next major inflection point comes on 23 June at the annual general meeting, where management and major shareholders will have to address the Uber approach publicly. Two days later, the J.P. Morgan Berlin European Internet Trip offers another forum for institutional dialogue. With the current price just 4.6% below the 52-week high of €39.85, every voting rights notification between now and then has the potential to shake the stock. The derivative-heavy positioning of banks like Goldman suggests that even a small shift in sentiment could trigger rapid movements — both ways.
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