Despite Cloud Boom and Government Win, SAP Stock Drops 46% from Its Peak
Published on 06/17/2026 at 12:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of Walldorf look like a textbook growth story, but the market is pricing SAP as if something has gone badly wrong. Shares of the German software giant are changing hands at €142.50, a far cry from the 52-week high of roughly €264 set in July 2025. That is a decline of about 46% in less than a year, and the year-to-date slide has reached nearly 30%. The disconnect between operational performance and share price has left many investors scratching their heads.
The cloud engine is indeed humming. In the first quarter of 2026, SAP’s cloud revenue rose 19% to approximately €5.96 billion, or 27% when currency fluctuations are stripped out. The cloud ERP suite, a key growth driver, climbed 30% on a currency-adjusted basis. The cloud backlog — a forward-looking indicator of future revenue — swelled to €21.9 billion, a 20% improvement. Operating profit advanced 17% to roughly €2.9 billion. Yet none of this has been enough to stop the stock’s slide.
SAP has not been idle on the strategic front. It recently won a €250 million contract alongside T-Systems to build a sovereign AI cloud for Germany’s federal administration. The consortium, which beat a competing bid led by Google, will use artificial intelligence to speed up document processing. The project had been held up by a legal challenge, but the rival consortium has now withdrawn its complaint. Separately, SAP opened a new data center in Mumbai to handle global procurement processes, a move that complies with India’s strict data-localization rules. India remains a key hub for the company, with over 15,000 employees.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Management is also leaning on financial engineering and acquisitions. A share buyback program running through the end of 2027 is authorized for up to €10 billion. As of early April, SAP had repurchased roughly 16.3 million shares at an average price of €161.16, for a total outlay of about €2.6 billion. In May, the company closed its acquisition of Reltio, a master-data-management specialist, which will be integrated into SAP’s Business Data Cloud and help power AI-driven enterprise applications. The full-year cloud revenue guidance of €25.8 billion to €26.2 billion already includes Reltio’s contribution.
Despite these efforts, the technical picture remains grim. The stock is trading below its 50-day moving average of €149, its 100-day average, and far below the 200-day average of €187. The relative strength index stands at 40.6 — not yet in oversold territory, but firmly in weak ground. Just 5% below the current price lies the 52-week low of €135.52, a level that could be tested if the selling pressure continues. JPMorgan has a “neutral” rating and a price target of €175, citing a general slowdown in the cloud software market and margin pressures from heavy AI infrastructure spending. SAP plans to launch 13 new AI assistants in June 2026 as part of an effort to monetize its technology.
The next major catalyst comes on July 23, 2026, when SAP reports its first-half results. The market will be looking closely at the cloud order book and at whether the new AI tools are already driving revenue. Management has already flagged that cloud growth in the second quarter will likely be softer than in the first, as one-time effects from the start of the year fade. Whether that has been fully priced in or will trigger another wave of selling may determine whether the stock holds support near €135 or breaks decisively lower.
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