Deutsche Telekom: A Tale of Two Realities — Record Results, Yet a Stock Trapped by T-Mobile US Uncertainty
29.06.2026 - 05:32:29 | boerse-global.de
The Bonn-based telecoms giant is caught in a peculiar bind. While its underlying business is firing on all cylinders — record World Cup viewership, raised full-year targets, and a solid start to 2026 — the share price keeps sliding. At Friday’s close, the stock stood at €26.31, a monthly loss of 8.74% and dangerously close to its 52-week low of €25.71. Over the past twelve months, the shares have shed roughly 15% of their value.
The dissonance between operational performance and market sentiment has rarely been starker. In the first quarter, organic revenue climbed 4.7% to €29.9 billion, while adjusted EBITDA after leasing rose 7.5% to €11.5 billion. Management responded by upgrading its full-year outlook: the group now targets around €47.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA AL and free cash flow after leasing of more than €19.8 billion for 2026. At home, MagentaTV enjoyed a stellar World Cup opening week, with more than 36 million viewers tuning in — double the peak audience during the 2024 European Championship. As the only broadcaster showing all 104 matches live, 44 of them exclusively, subscription sales hit an all-time high.
Yet none of this has been enough to arrest the stock’s slide. The primary culprit is speculation surrounding T-Mobile US, the American subsidiary that accounts for roughly two-thirds of group revenue and in which Deutsche Telekom holds around 53% of the shares. A Seeking Alpha report on June 25 added fuel to the fire: it suggested that SpaceX is mulling a purchase of T-Mobile US, aiming to merge mobile telephony with satellite technology on a single global platform. T-Mobile US shares actually rose in US trading on the news, but the parent company’s Frankfurt-listed stock dropped.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams has outlined a more sweeping scenario. If SpaceX cannot find a smaller infrastructure deal to fill its gaps, it may leap directly into mobile telephony via a full acquisition — with T-Mobile US as the most logical target. Williams also suspects that Deutsche Telekom is already bracing for such a bid, which could explain why CEO Tim Höttges is reportedly weighing a tighter holding structure around T-Mobile US, as first reported by the Wall Street Journal. No official confirmation has been provided.
Two additional near-term headwinds are compounding the technical picture. First, the Bundesnetzagentur is running a nationwide mobile network stress test until July 1, asking citizens to report real-world reception via an app. Deutsche Telekom claims its 5G network covers more than 99% of the population, but by surface area roughly 12.1% of Germany still lacked 5G coverage at the end of 2025, and 7.5% lacked 4G. Should the crowdsourced data reveal significant gaps, political pressure for costly rural infrastructure investments could intensify.
Second, the company’s share buyback program — the second tranche, worth up to €550 million — is set to expire on June 30. That removes a reliable buyer from the market at a particularly fragile moment. Technically, the stock is already oversold: the relative strength index sits at 34.3, and the price is nearly 9% below its 200-day moving average. The gap to the 52-week high of €34.35 is a yawning 23%.
Investors now face a waiting game. The next major catalyst is the second-quarter earnings report due on August 6. That is when Tim Höttges and his team will have to address the SpaceX question head-on and clarify whether a new holding structure for T-Mobile US is in the works. Until then, news out of the US looks set to move the stock far more than any positive data point out of Bonn. The €25.71 support level is the line in the sand: if it breaks, further technical selling could follow.
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Deutsche Telekom Stock: New Analysis - 29 June
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