Deutsche Telekom: Buyback Engine Running as Analysts Trim T-Mobile-Linked Targets
Published on 07/28/2026 at 06:03 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The week opened with Deutsche Telekom shares climbing 2.5 percent to €27.11, a move that extended a recent recovery but left traders weighing two competing forces: a steady stream of analyst downgrades tied to the US mobile market and the company's own relentless share repurchase program. The stock's resilience — it added 1.55 percent on Monday alone — suggests the buyback is providing a floor, even as Wall Street recalibrates its expectations for T-Mobile US.
JPMorgan led the latest round of target cuts, lowering its price objective for Deutsche Telekom from €40 to €38 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating. Analyst Akhil Dattani cited updated projections for the US subsidiary, which directly feeds into the parent company's consolidated revenue and earnings forecasts. The revision, published last week and circulated to the market on Monday, reflects a broader reassessment of T-Mobile US's near-term trajectory. UBS followed suit, trimming its T-Mobile US target from $255 to $235 but keeping a "Buy" rating, noting that while operating profit and net customer additions beat expectations, management chose not to raise its full-year guidance. The DZ Bank also lowered its fair value estimate for the US unit. Despite the downward adjustments, the consensus among analysts remains that T-Mobile US is operationally sound, with mid-to-high single-digit growth still the base case.
The caution is not limited to the US side. Deutsche Bank Research cut its Deutsche Telekom target from €42 to €40, also keeping a buy recommendation. The common thread across these revisions is a cooling outlook for US subscriber growth and, closer to home, concerns about the German fiber-optic rollout. A recent study flagged what it termed a "monetization gap" in Germany's broadband expansion, suggesting that the billions being poured into fiber infrastructure are not yet generating commensurate returns. Activation rates for new connections are reportedly trailing expectations, tying up capital without delivering near-term earnings.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
None of this has slowed the buyback machine. Between July 20 and July 24, Deutsche Telekom repurchased 1,353,640 of its own shares on the Xetra platform at weighted average prices ranging from €26.0177 to €27.0087, spending roughly €36.14 million. Since the program began on July 1, the company has bought back a total of 5,026,915 shares. The steady demand from the company itself is providing a visible support level, particularly with the stock trading just below its 50-day moving average of €27.16 — a technical threshold that could determine whether the current bounce turns into a sustained rally.
On the bullish side, T-Mobile US raised its adjusted free cash flow forecast to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion, a move that underpins Deutsche Telekom's dividend capacity and reinforces the parent company's ability to fund its buyback program. The stock's relative strength index sits at a neutral 54.7, leaving room for further upside if it can break decisively above the 50-day line. A clean move through that level could open the path toward the 100-day moving average at €28.61.
The bearish case rests on structural headwinds. Deutsche Telekom shares remain roughly 5 percent below their 200-day average and more than 21 percent off the 52-week high of €34.35 reached in late February. The deceleration in US net customer additions signals intensifying competition, and JPMorgan explicitly tied its target cut to the need for lower US estimates — a dynamic that could pressure margins in the quarters ahead. In Germany, the fiber monetization issue remains unresolved, with capital tied up in infrastructure that has yet to deliver a meaningful revenue uplift.
The next major catalyst arrives on August 6, when Deutsche Telekom releases its half-year and second-quarter results. That report will show whether the operational strength of T-Mobile US — as described by UBS — can offset the investment burden and competitive pressure in Europe. It will also provide clarity on the company's full-year guidance and dividend strategy. Until then, the stock is caught between a buyback-driven floor and a ceiling formed by cautious analyst targets, with the 50-day moving average serving as the immediate battleground.
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