Deutsche Telekom Rebounds From 52-Week Low as JPMorgan Flags 53% Upside and Buyback Provides a Floor
Published on 07/11/2026 at 06:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The stock has clawed back more than 11% from its late-June trough of €23.54, closing Friday at €26.15 for a one-day gain of 3.4%. That level still leaves the Bonn-based telecoms giant nearly 24% below the year's peak of €34.35 touched in February. The 50-day simple moving average sits at €27.38 and the 200-day at €28.68, both above the current price — a technical picture that underscores the severity of the sell-off that erased more than a quarter of the company's market value in four months.
Yet JPMorgan's Akhil Dattani argues the sell-off has overshot. He reaffirmed an "Overweight" rating and a €40 price target that implies roughly 53% upside from Friday's close. Dattani's conviction rests on expectations of double-digit earnings-per-share growth and what he calls a historic valuation gap between the current price and fair value. He is not alone: 17 analysts rate the stock "Strong Buy" with a consensus target of €37.69, while Morningstar recently upgraded its stance to five stars and pegs the fair value of Deutsche Telekom's American Depositary Receipt at $44.
Buyback Machine Grinds On
The management's own buyback programme provides the most tangible support. Between 1 and 3 July the company repurchased 908,705 of its own shares on Xetra, part of a €2 billion plan that runs through the end of 2026. A third tranche of up to €560 million is set to kick off shortly and will continue until 30 September. The buyback has repeatedly steadied the stock during the recent slide, and chart watchers now point to the €26.00–€26.18 zone as a near-term resistance level to break before the moving averages come into play. The next major support lies between €23.13 and €23.47, just above the recent low.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
The defensive posture is warranted given the headwinds that triggered the decline: anxiety over SpaceX's satellite internet ambitions and speculation about a possible US merger involving T-Mobile US. Dattani himself cautions that an improvement in the news flow could take several quarters. The Relative Strength Index of 48.2 signals neutral territory, while annualised 30-day volatility of 31.74% reflects continued uncertainty.
5G Milestone and Earnings Watch
Amid the stock market drama, the company continues to build out its business. On Friday it switched on a private 5G campus network at the HHLA's Altenwerder container terminal in Hamburg — a slice of the industrial-customer growth story that underpins the long-term thesis. The group is also pushing fibre-to-the-home and aiming for 99% 5G coverage in Germany, betting on digitisation and AI to lift both consumer and enterprise revenue.
The next major catalyst arrives on 6 August, when Deutsche Telekom reports second-quarter figures. Management has guided for full-year adjusted EBITDA of around €47.5 billion and free cash flow of roughly €19.8 billion. Whether those targets can restore confidence will determine if the analyst-led rebound can withstand the technical and competitive pressures still weighing on the stock.
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Deutsche Telekom Stock: New Analysis - 11 July
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