Deutsche Telekom: Record Q1 and Labour Peace Overwhelmed by T-Mobile US Merger Uncertainty
21.06.2026 - 16:26:09 | boerse-global.de
The German telecoms giant has been buying back its own shares at a steady clip – over 15 million since April, including 1.6 million in mid-June alone. Yet the stock keeps sliding. On Friday it closed at €26.72, its lowest point in six months and within striking distance of the 52-week trough. The week’s loss of nearly 5.7% marked the biggest weekly rout since late April, when Bloomberg first flagged merger talks between Deutsche Telekom and its US subsidiary.
That merger question is now the dominant overhang. A Wall Street Journal report has revived speculation that CEO Timotheus Höttges is exploring ways to more fully integrate T-Mobile US with its German parent. The logic is straightforward: the American unit already contributes almost two-thirds of group revenue, with service revenues jumping 11.5% to $18.9 billion in the first quarter. A full merger would formally cement that earnings engine. But the path is fraught. Minority shareholders of T-Mobile US are reportedly wary of being exposed to lower-margin international operations, while the German government – a significant Telekom shareholder – has declined to comment beyond calling the reports “speculation.” A deal would require regulatory clearance on both sides of the Atlantic, and there is no sign of a fast breakthrough.
Meanwhile, the underlying numbers tell a far brighter story. Deutsche Telekom’s first-quarter revenue reached €29.9 billion, an organic increase of 4.7%. Adjusted EBITDA rose a meatier 7.5% to €11.5 billion, prompting management to lift its full-year earnings target to around €47.5 billion. The dividend for 2025 was raised 11% to €1.00 per share. On the labour front, the company struck a 33-month wage agreement with the ver.di union covering roughly 60,000 employees, delivering total pay increases of about 8.5% through the end of 2028. The final member ballot was scheduled for June 19, capping a period of industrial stability.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Analysts remain broadly bullish. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan both retain buy ratings, with a consensus price target of roughly €39 – implying more than 40% upside from current levels. Technically, the stock looks oversold: the relative strength index sits at 33.3, deep in oversold territory, while the 50-day moving average at €28.23 represents the nearest resistance level to the upside. From its all-time high set in late February, the share price has retreated over 22%.
All eyes now turn to August 6, when the company will report second-quarter results. Until then, any clarity – or lack thereof – from Berlin on the merger question will likely dictate whether the stock can shake off this extended slump. The combination of a share buyback, record operational momentum and labour peace has so far failed to convince the market. Whether the next catalyst lifts the shares or deepens the discount remains an open call.
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