Deutsche Telekom’s Stock Holds Its Nerve as T-Mobile’s Subscriber Slowdown Meets a Buyback Buffer
Published on 07/25/2026 at 22:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The tug-of-war over Deutsche Telekom’s shares continued on Friday, with the stock closing 1.54 percent higher at €26.45 after an early wobble. The initial pressure came from the US subsidiary T-Mobile US, whose second-quarter numbers fell short of expectations on the customer acquisition front. By the end of the session, however, the selling had been absorbed — a pattern that has become familiar as the stock searches for direction.
T-Mobile US added 277,000 new postpaid phone subscribers in the second quarter, a 13 percent decline from the same period last year. The net margin also contracted, slipping from 14.5 percent to 11.5 percent. The outlook for the third quarter is equally subdued: management guided for roughly 250,000 new customer additions, below what analysts had pencilled in. The broader US smartphone market is shrinking — Omdia data shows a 3 percent decline in first-quarter sales, driven by pricing pressure and shifting carrier subsidy models. Analysts noted that the weakness is concentrated in the US; Deutsche Telekom’s German operations remain stable.
Friday’s intraday recovery was notable given that T-Mobile US had already spooked investors on Thursday. The stock fell 4 percent in pre-market US trading after its subscriber growth failed to match the outperformance posted by rival AT&T a day earlier. That selloff rippled back to the parent company in Germany, but the damage was contained by the close.
Technical Resistance Remains Stubborn
Despite the bounce, the chart picture is far from resolved. The stock sits 7.7 percent below its 200-day moving average of €28.66 and 23 percent off the 52-week high of €34.35 reached on February 27. The 50-day moving average at €27.19 is the nearest hurdle — the stock would need to gain 2.73 percent to reclaim it. The relative strength index of 49.3 points to a market that is genuinely torn, with neither bulls nor bears in clear control.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
The annualised volatility of 33.58 percent underscores that sharp swings in either direction remain likely. For now, the stock’s inability to recapture the 50-day line keeps the bearish case alive.
Buybacks Provide a Floor
One force working in the stock’s favour is the ongoing share repurchase programme. Between July 13 and 17, Deutsche Telekom bought back 1,351,740 of its own shares at daily average prices ranging from €26.42 to €27.26. Since the programme began on July 1, the company has repurchased 3,673,275 shares in total. This steady demand from the company itself helps cushion downside moves and reduces the free float.
The next major test comes on August 6, when Deutsche Telekom reports its own quarterly results. If management confirms its full-year EBITDA and free cash flow targets, that could provide the catalyst needed to break above the 50-day moving average and begin closing the gap to the 200-day line.
Analyst Support — With a Caveat
Deutsche Bank analyst Robert Grindle maintained his Buy rating on the stock, though he trimmed the price target from €42 to €40. He argued that T-Mobile US’s adjusted earnings per share beat expectations and that the subsidiary raised its 2026 free cash flow guidance to between $18.4 billion and $18.8 billion — a positive signal for the investment case. However, Grindle also flagged a shifting competitive landscape, noting that new forces such as Starlink’s satellite internet and major AI initiatives like Stargate have dimmed the sector’s former shine.
On the governance front, the compensation package for Srini Gopalan, T-Mobile US’s new CEO who relocated from Germany, has drawn criticism from shareholders. While such debates do not directly affect the fundamentals, they can weigh on sentiment when the technical picture is already fragile.
Deutsche Telekom at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Magenta TV Adds a Growth Dimension
Away from the US mobile business, Deutsche Telekom’s content and sports rights division is delivering a different story. Magenta TV added far more subscribers than expected during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to reports in the Süddeutsche Zeitung. The streaming service had roughly five million customers at the end of 2025 and aims to double that base. Advertising revenue from the tournament was double the level generated during the 2024 European Championship. The company has already secured broadcasting rights for the 2030 World Cup, which will feature 48 teams and 104 matches across three continents.
One risk is the high proportion of flexible short-term subscriptions, which historically tend to be cancelled after major events. Nonetheless, the Telekom is expanding its sports portfolio: a partnership with the German Golf Association will bring live golf coverage to MagentaTV and MagentaSport on roughly 300 days per year through 2029, including the Ryder Cup in 2027 and 2029.
For investors, the picture remains split. The margin-squeezed US business is a near-term drag, while the higher-margin content and advertising operations in Germany provide an offsetting growth impulse. Whether the stock can break out of its technical rut will depend on whether the August 6 report gives the bulls enough ammunition to push through the 50-day line — and eventually back towards the 200-day moving average.
Ad
Deutsche Telekom Stock: New Analysis - 25 July
Fresh Deutsche Telekom information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
