Deutsche Telekom's Widening Rift: Record Earnings Fail to Shield Stock as Buyback Window Closes and Merger Fog Lingers
26.06.2026 - 21:07:07 | boerse-global.de
Deutsche Telekom finds itself in an odd predicament. The group just posted a near-€30 billion organic revenue quarter and raised its full-year profit forecast, yet its shares are trading a hair's breadth away from a 52-week low. That disconnect is about to get a fresh test: the second tranche of its share buyback programme expires on 30 June, removing a dependable source of demand from the market just as confusion over the future of T-Mobile US weighs on sentiment.
The outgoing tranche carried a volume of up to €550 million and, since early April, has seen the Bonn-based operator scoop up more than 15 million of its own shares. The bulk of those repurchased shares will be cancelled by management. From July onward, that systematic support will vanish. At a current price around €26.26, the stock sits only about 2% above its 52-week trough of €25.71, with the relative strength index at 30.8 – firmly in oversold territory by most technical measures.
Adding to the pressure are swirling reports from the Wall Street Journal about a potential restructuring at T-Mobile US. CEO Timotheus Höttges has declined to comment on the speculation, and the German government, which still holds a stake in the former state monopoly, has dismissed the rumours as pure conjecture. Yet the uncertainty keeps a lid on any rally, overshadowing what is otherwise a robust operational picture.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Behind the stock's doldrums, the underlying business is humming. First-quarter organic sales hit nearly €30 billion, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 7.5% to €11.5 billion. That performance prompted management to lift the full-year guidance, now targeting an operating profit of around €47.5 billion. Free cash flow is projected to land at roughly €20 billion. On the product side, the group will shutter its legacy MMS service on 30 June, a move mirrored by rivals o2 and 1&1, with modern RCS chats replacing the old standard – a change that carries no material financial impact.
The next major catalyst arrives on 6 August, when Deutsche Telekom reports second-quarter numbers. Until then, the narrative is likely to be dictated by T-Mobile US headlines. If the June 30 buyback expiry coincides with a break below the current yearly low, analysts warn that further downside could follow. For now, the group's steady cash generation and raised targets offer a floor, but the rally that many had hoped for remains conspicuously absent.
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