Diverging Paths: Ethereum Whales Accumulate Amid ETF Outflows

Ethereum's market narrative is currently defined by a stark contrast in investor behavior. While recent days have seen significant capital exit U.S.-based spot ETFs, on-chain data reveals substantial accumulation by large-scale investors. This clash between short-term caution and long-term conviction unfolds against the backdrop of a major network upgrade and shifting regulatory landscapes.

Adding a new dimension to the market, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provided regulatory clarity on December 4. The agency approved the trading of spot cryptocurrencies on regulated U.S. derivatives exchanges. Bitnomial is expected to launch such products the week of December 8, marking another step toward integration within the traditional financial framework. This regulatory development, combined with recent technical advancements, is poised to influence price action in the coming weeks.

A Technical Milestone: The Fusaka Upgrade

The Ethereum network successfully activated its "Fusaka" upgrade on December 3, 2025, a significant technical achievement. This update, implementing changes across both the consensus and execution layers, primarily targets scalability. A key feature, "Peer Data Availability Sampling," is projected to reduce transaction costs on Layer-2 networks by an estimated 40 to 60% over the long term. Network data indicates the transition proceeded smoothly, representing the most substantial development since the prior "Dencun" update.

The Liquidity Squeeze

A critical underlying trend is the continued contraction of immediately available supply. Analytics from firms like Glassnode indicate that Ethereum balances held on centralized exchanges have dropped to a record low of approximately 8.84% of the total supply. This trend suggests a broad movement of assets into cold storage or staking contracts, effectively reducing the liquid supply that could be available for panic selling and potentially creating a supply shock.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Ethereum?

Institutional Flows Tell Two Stories

The reaction from institutional investment vehicles has been mixed. U.S. spot ETFs recorded net outflows of roughly $75.2 million last Friday, with the BlackRock fund ETHA contributing significantly to the selling pressure. This marked the fourth consecutive day of negative flows for this sector.

In sharp contrast, the activity of other major market participants paints a different picture. On-chain analysts identified substantial purchases by an entity known as "BitMine," which has been linked to Fundstrat. Over the weekend, this address accumulated Ethereum valued at nearly $200 million. Market observers interpret this aggressive buying as evidence that contrarian investors view the current price levels—despite ETF weakness—as an attractive entry point.

As of the latest data, Ethereum is trading at $3,133.70. Following a daily decline of 1.93% on Friday, the asset continues to trade below its 50-day moving average, underscoring its ongoing consolidation phase. The interplay between technical progress, regulatory evolution, and conflicting institutional signals will likely determine its near-term trajectory.