DroneShield's RSI of 23 Tells the Story: Record Pipeline Can't Shake ASIC Probe

A defence company with a A$2.2 billion project pipeline, 312 active contracts, and a single A$730 million deal awaiting a decision in the second half of the year — that typically screams buy. Not for DroneShield. The anti-drone specialist's shares closed at €1.40 on Thursday, a staggering 61.6% below last October's 52-week high of €3.65. The relative strength index has collapsed to 23.5, deep in oversold territory, and the stock trades roughly 32% beneath its 200-day moving average. One report put the weekly drop at nearly 15%, with an RSI of 23.8 — the picture is uniformly grim.

The culprit is a regulatory shadow that shows no signs of lifting. Australia's corporate watchdog, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, has been investigating since May over possible breaches of disclosure rules and suspected insider trading. The probe zeroes in on share sales by former chief executive Oleg Vornik and ex-chairman Peter James conducted in late 2025. Until ASIC signals an end to the inquiry, every rally attempt is capped by legal uncertainty.

Yet the operational side tells a radically different story. Customer payments in the first quarter of 2026 surged roughly 360% year-on-year — the highest tally in company history. Revenue was the second-largest ever recorded. Confirmed full-year income stood at A$155 million as of mid-April, and the U.S. defence budget alone allocates at least US$1.8 billion for counter-drone technology. The board is clearly betting on a boom.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying DroneShield?

Europe is the next frontier. On June 23, DroneShield launched a supply-chain initiative in Poland, aiming to lock in local manufacturing and technology partners. The move is designed to give the company an edge in NATO tenders that require domestic content. A separate cooperation agreement with Defenture, signed at the Eurosatory 2026 exhibition, will pair DroneShield's anti-drone systems with Defenture's mobile vehicle platforms to create an integrated air-defence package. Meanwhile, the new European headquarters in Amsterdam is targeting a capacity leap from roughly US$0.5 billion to US$2.4 billion in annual output by the end of next year.

Management is also stacking its bench with heavyweights. On June 22, the company appointed retired Rear Admiral Lee Goddard CSC as an independent non-executive director, effective July 1, 2026. Goddard brings more than three decades of defence and national-security experience, having served as the founding CEO of the state-backed Australian Missile Corporation and as an active reserve officer in the Royal Australian Navy. He joins chief executive Angus Bean, who took the helm in early 2026, and chairman Hamish McLennan, a media veteran — a leadership team built for a large-scale push.

The project pipeline is already groaning. Of the 312 live projects worth A$2.2 billion, 15 individual orders exceed A$30 million each. The crown jewel is a single A$730 million contract, with a decision expected in the second half of 2026. If that lands, it would dwarf anything on the books and validate the company's aggressive U.S. and European expansion.

The first real test comes on August 26, when DroneShield reports its half-year results. Investors will be scanning not just revenue growth — the Polish supply chain, the Defenture deal, and the leadership overhaul should all be contributing — but also any word from ASIC. The moment the regulator signals closure, the shares could re-rate fast. Until then, the technicals scream oversold, but the legal overhang keeps both buyers and sellers in a holding pattern.

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DroneShield Stock: New Analysis - 26 June

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