Ethereum’s Conflicting Signals: Whale Buying and ETF Revival Clash With Foundation Austerity
Published on 07/21/2026 at 19:06 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Ether has clawed back above $1,930, adding more than 3% in the past 24 hours and notching an 11% gain over the last month. The recovery is being driven by a rare convergence of institutional and whale demand, yet the broader picture remains clouded by darkening sentiment, a scaling-back by the Ethereum Foundation, and a delayed network upgrade.
After eight consecutive weeks of redemptions, spot Ethereum ETFs finally turned a corner. The first week of July brought net inflows of roughly $84 million, followed by a second week of $105.4 million. BlackRock’s ETHA fund has been the primary engine, ending its own eight-week outflow streak with a single-day haul of $45.3 million on July 15. The fund’s cumulative net inflows now stand at $11.28 billion, underscoring the asset manager’s outsized influence in the category. Analysts point to BlackRock’s brand trust and distribution reach as structural advantages that smaller issuers cannot replicate.
Whale activity has added a second, more discreet layer of buying pressure. On-chain data shows the highest volume of large transactions involving wrapped Ether since May 2021, with 113,000 transfers exceeding $100,000 across a seven-day window. In a single 24-hour period, wallets accumulated roughly 105,666 ETH — worth around $196 million — through withdrawals, staking, and direct purchases. Notable moves include a previously dormant address pulling 10,000 ETH from Binance, Arthur Hayes adding 1,332.5 ETH to his holdings, and the investor Abraxas removing 20,000 ETH from the Aave lending platform. Meanwhile, the network’s staking ratio hit a record 35%, signaling long-term conviction among validators.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Ethereum?
Technically, the rally has gained credibility. Ether broke above the $1,850 resistance level and successfully retested it, a move that favours the bulls. The current price sits 11.4% above the 50-day moving average of $1,733, and chartists see a path toward $2,150–$2,200 if volume picks up near the psychologically important $2,000 mark. The 200-day average at $2,178 remains the medium-term threshold that would confirm a sustained recovery. Immediate resistance lies in the $1,900–$1,920 band, beyond which $2,000, $2,163, and $2,465 are the next upside targets. On the downside, a break below $1,850 could see a retest of the 50-day line.
Yet not all large holders are charging headlong into the rally. BitMine, the largest publicly traded Ether holder, added just 7,430 ETH last week — its weakest weekly accumulation since launching the strategy. Instead, the company allocated $85.88 million to share buybacks, repurchasing 5.5 million shares at $15.61 each. Some market participants interpret the slowdown as a cautionary signal, though others view it as routine capital allocation. BitMine investor Tom Lee remains bullish, reiterating a $12,000 price target for Ether contingent on Bitcoin reaching $250,000.
Structural headwinds are emerging from the network’s core organization. The Ethereum Foundation cut 54 positions — roughly one-fifth of its workforce — and slashed its 2026 budget by 40%, shifting toward an endowment model that aims to spend just 5% of funds by 2030. The long-awaited Glamsterdam upgrade, originally slated for this year, has been postponed to the third quarter. For investors, the near-term price strength coexists with a prolonged internal restructuring whose impact on development velocity remains unclear. The Fear & Greed Index reflects this dissonance, slipping from 29 (fear) to 25 (extreme fear) even as prices climb.
On the derivatives front, Kraken Pro has introduced U.S. dollar-settled European-style Ether options for institutional clients, settling in cash and accepting collateral in over 30 currencies — a move that simplifies hedging and could deepen liquidity. The coming weeks will be decisive: sustained ETF inflows through the end of July paired with a hold above $1,800 would bolster the case for institutional re-accumulation. A reversal in flows, especially from BlackRock’s ETHA, would risk dragging the market back into its earlier outflow spiral.
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