Fee Relief and a Turkish Renaissance Give TUI a Summer Boost, Yet Shares Remain Under Pressure
Published on 07/01/2026 at 07:38 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
TUI is entering the second half of 2026 with two notable tailwinds: a sharp reduction in its contributions to the German travel security fund and a decisive shift in summer bookings toward Turkey. The combination of lower costs and changing travel patterns offers the tour operator a fresh narrative after a rocky start to the year.
The Deutsche Reisesicherungsfonds, established in the wake of Thomas Cook’s collapse, will halve its levy on package tours to 0.25% of insurable turnover from 1 November. That move frees up around €70 million annually across the industry. TUI has welcomed the step but continues to push for a complete abolition of the fee, arguing the fund is now well capitalised. The savings will be redirected to higher-margin activities, particularly hotels and cruises.
Summer demand is coalescing around the eastern Mediterranean. Antalya has overtaken Mallorca as the top destination on TUI’s booking list heading into peak season, a remarkable recovery given the geopolitical headwinds earlier this year. The Iran conflict temporarily dampened appetite for the region, but the rebound has been faster than anticipated. Greek islands such as Crete, Rhodes and Kos are also seeing strong demand, while Egypt is staging a comeback. European destinations account for roughly 80% of current bookings.
The shift is supported by a more favourable cost environment for travellers. Germany cut its air travel tax on 1 July, reducing ticket levies by €2.50 to €11.40 depending on distance. Meanwhile, Brent crude has retreated to around $74 a barrel from March highs of $120, providing margin relief across the travel sector. German inflation dipped to 2.3% in June, keeping price-conscious consumers on the lookout for bargains — flights to Málaga and Madrid are slightly cheaper year-on-year, though a ticket to Mallorca costs about €6 more than in 2025.
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Operational challenges remain. The new EU biometric entry system for non-EU travellers is causing significant delays at some European airports, adding strain during the busy summer period. TUI is leaning heavily on last-minute bookings in the third quarter to fill capacity, and the short booking window adds uncertainty.
The stock, however, is not yet reflecting the improving fundamentals. TUI shares closed at €7.19 on Tuesday, leaving them down nearly 20% since the start of the year. Technically, the equity is trading above its 50-day moving average but faces stiff resistance at the 200-day line of €7.66. Analysts are split on the outlook: JPMorgan rates the stock “overweight” with a target of €12.50, while Bernstein and UBS are neutral with targets around €9.20–€9.60. Jefferies is more cautious, assigning a price target of just €7.00.
Management continues to target an adjusted operating profit of up to €1.4 billion for the full year, though it had already trimmed that goal earlier due to geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather. The next catalyst will be the release of detailed summer 2026 booking data in the coming weeks, which will determine whether the company can hold its forecast.
TUI at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, TUI is navigating a complex summer: lower costs, a winning booking destination in Turkey, and a market that remains unconvinced. If the operational recovery gains pace and the structural savings begin to flow, the shares may finally catch up with the underlying improvement.
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