Fiserv’s AI Payment Ambitions Face Market Skepticism

Despite forging strategic alliances with two of the world's largest payment networks to lead the charge in AI-driven commerce, Fiserv's stock continues to languish near multi-year lows. The company's latest data on small business performance and its dual partnerships with Visa and Mastercard highlight a strategic push that has yet to resonate with investors.

The most recent Fiserv Small Business Index, released yesterday, indicates U.S. small businesses concluded the 2025 holiday period with modest growth. The seasonally adjusted index stood at 144 for December.

Key figures from the report include:
* Year-over-year sales growth: +1.6%
* Month-over-month change: +0.8%
* Transaction volume: Unchanged from November levels

The sales increase was primarily driven by higher average ticket sizes rather than a greater number of transactions. Geographically, the performance was mixed. States like California (+1.6% month-over-month) and Texas (+1.1%) provided support, while others such as New York (-0.5%), Colorado (-1.5%), and Pennsylvania (-0.2%) recorded declines.

Strategic Alliances for an AI-Powered Future

Fiserv is embedding its infrastructure within the global payment ecosystem through expanded collaborations.

Deepening Ties with Visa
The company announced a strengthened partnership with Visa focused on implementing "Visa Intelligent Commerce" and deploying the Trusted Agent Protocol across its merchant network. This initiative centers on authenticating AI agents in the payment flow, securing automated transactions, and distinguishing trusted agents from malicious bots in agent-driven commerce scenarios. According to Sanjay Saraf, SVP and Global Chief Product Officer for Merchant Solutions, the goal is to equip merchants on the Clover platform, along with connected ISVs and ISOs, with tools to leverage agentic commerce without sacrificing trust or security.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Fiserv?

Expanding the Mastercard Partnership
Concurrently, Fiserv is broadening its cooperation with Mastercard, positioning itself as one of the first major payment processors to adopt the Agent Pay Acceptance Framework at scale. This integration involves:
* Submitting network token requests on behalf of merchants
* Utilizing Mastercard's Secure Card on File solution
* Enabling strong authentication and fraud prevention for AI agent transactions
* Establishing scalable governance structures for autonomous payments

Share Price Under Pressure Amid Strategic Shift

The market has remained unconvinced. Following a particularly weak 2025, Fiserv shares have declined approximately 66% year-to-date. The stock is currently trading around $68, a stark contrast to its 52-week high of $238.59.

This downturn was triggered by third-quarter 2025 results released in late October, which reportedly led to the worst trading day in the company's history. The operational picture was less severe:
* Q3 GAAP revenue growth: +1%
* Year-to-date GAAP revenue growth: +5%
* Quarterly GAAP EPS growth: +49%

Analyst firm Mizuho maintains an "Outperform" rating on the stock but recently reduced its price target from $110 to $100.

Positioning at the Intersection of AI and Payments

By focusing on agentic commerce, Fiserv is explicitly targeting AI-supported payment processes as the next evolutionary step. The simultaneous integration with both Visa and Mastercard aims to transform its extensive merchant base—including approximately 2 million U.S. small businesses on the Clover platform—into a central component for AI-based transactions.

The company's current market capitalization stands at roughly $37.3 billion. Fiserv is covered by 36 analysts, with a consensus rating of "Hold." The next significant test for its strategic repositioning will come with the quarterly earnings report scheduled for February 10, 2026.