Fujikura's Patent Loss and Short-Selling Storm Overshadow a 310 Billion Yen Profit Forecast
04.07.2026 - 03:44:53 | boerse-global.de
Fujikura has suffered a decisive legal defeat that threatens one of its key competitive advantages in Europe. The Technical Board of Appeal at the European Patent Office has fully revoked patent EP3796060, with no possibility of appeal. The ruling immediately terminates an ongoing infringement lawsuit in the United Kingdom, where Fujikura had accused rival Sterlite Technologies of copying elements of its Celesta cable family. Sterlite now plans to reclaim its legal costs from the Japanese group.
The verdict arrived during a week when Fujikura’s shares were already in freefall. From a high of 7,068 yen on 23 June, the stock had plunged roughly 30% by the start of July. On a weekly basis, the decline reached 11.74%, although a late-week recovery trimmed some losses. On Friday, the stock closed at €29.12, a 2.6% gain on the day, as bargain hunters stepped in.
The sharp correction is less a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals than of extreme positioning. At the end of June, margin-buying volumes stood at around 25.19 million shares, creating a powerful amplifier for moves in either direction. At the same time, prominent short sellers have built sizeable bearish bets: Morgan Stanley holds 410,000 shares short, and Goldman Sachs 270,000. The interplay between leveraged long positions and institutional short-selling has accelerated the technical pullback.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Fujikura?
This turbulence stands in stark contrast to the company’s own outlook. On 18 June, Fujikura sharply raised its profit guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2027, forecasting operating profit of 310 billion yen and net profit of 229 billion yen — figures that underscore the group’s bet on booming demand from artificial-intelligence data centres. Yet the market’s reaction was initially muted before turning violent, driven largely by the unwinding of speculative positions.
Broader market conditions, however, offer some support. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.47% on 3 July to close at 69,744.07, lifted by renewed interest in companies tied to data-centre infrastructure. Memory-chip maker Kioxia, for example, jumped after announcing samples of its tenth-generation 3D flash memory for AI servers. Industry forecasts suggest global data-centre spending could reach several trillion dollars by 2030, a tailwind that Fujikura shares in.
The stock remains a high-octane holding. Its annualised 30-day volatility sits at 134%, an extreme reading even by the standards of AI-related growth names. The relative strength index stands at 46.6, neutral territory after the recent sell-off. The price-to-earnings ratio hovers around 39, and despite the weekly carnage, the shares still show a gain of about 9.5% over the past 30 days — evidence that the fundamental thesis around AI infrastructure remains intact.
But the patent loss introduces a fresh headwind. Until now, Fujikura enjoyed broad European protection for its high-density fibre-optic cables, a lucrative segment where rivals now face fewer barriers. Management will have to defend margins without that shield, and investors are expected to scrutinise the remaining patent portfolio in the sessions ahead.
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