Germany’s Care Insurance Faces €7.5 Billion Gap as 2026 Reforms Target Minijobs and Childless Surcharges
28.06.2026 - 15:37:01 | boerse-global.de
The German health ministry is pushing ahead with a sweeping overhaul of the country’s long-term care insurance, which faces a funding shortfall of 7.5 billion euros in 2026. The package includes raising the childless surcharge from 4.2 to 4.3 percent, tightening eligibility criteria for care grades, delaying payments of care subsidies for nursing-home residents, and—controversially—bringing minijobs into the care-contribution system.
Social welfare groups such as the AWO have condemned the plan. They argue it will cut pension entitlements for unpaid family carers and make it harder to achieve collectively bargained wage increases in a sector already struggling to attract staff. Health Minister Warken, however, defends the measures as an unavoidable response to surging expenditure.
Sharp wage hikes for care workers take effect in July 2026
While Germany’s general minimum wage sits at 13.90 euros, the care sector will see far higher floors from 1 July 2026:
- Entry-level care assistants: 16.52 euros per hour
- Qualified assistants: 17.80 euros per hour
- Fully trained nurses: 21.03 euros per hour
Employer groups are sounding alarms. The speed of these increases, they say, outstrips what many businesses can bear. A survey by the MĂĽnster Chamber of Crafts among 1,500 firms earlier this year found a significant number struggling to absorb additional costs or offer voluntary bonuses. Beyond labour expenses, companies also face higher energy and material bills.
Minijobs: flexible lifeline or dead-end trap?
Another flashpoint is the potential reform of Germany’s signature mini-job model. A government-appointed pension commission has proposed limiting such low-hour, low-pay positions to school pupils in future.
The Mittelstandsunion (MIT) and the German Hotel and Restaurant Association (Dehoga) are pushing back hard. The numbers underscore their concern: around 1.1 million minijobbers work in hospitality alone. “Without these flexible workers, service offerings in restaurants, tourism and retail would be impossible to maintain,” Dehoga warns. Employers already pay a flat-rate 15 percent pension contribution for each minijobber. While economist Monika Schnitzer, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, describes minijobs as a “dead end”, business representatives defend them as indispensable.
Capital-rente study warns of 250,000 job losses
A still darker prognosis comes from a recent study by the Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) and the WSI. Introducing a funded “capital pension” (Aktienrente) by the early 2030s could destroy up to 250,000 jobs, the authors calculate. The estimated cost to the economy would be roughly 45 billion euros.
Under the proposal, additional contributions would start flowing from 2028. The overall pension contribution rate could rise to 22 percent by 2032—compared with 20.4 percent without reform. That difference, the study argues, would depress hiring and investment.
Cost pressures compound across multiple fronts
The confluence of rising minimum wages, surging social security contributions, and the proposed pension shift is straining labour-intensive enterprises. The Handwerkskammer MĂĽnster survey showed that many smaller firms already lack the financial headroom for extra mandatory payments or voluntary incentives. With energy and raw material costs also elevated, the collective burden is prompting widespread unease among business owners and industry associations alike.
