Gold Climbs for Fifth Day as Warsh’s Dot Plot Collides with Historic Central Bank Hoarding
17.06.2026 - 12:43:22 | boerse-global.de
Geopolitical calm in the Middle East and a shifting interest-rate narrative have propelled gold into a fifth consecutive session of gains, even as investors brace for the US Federal Reserve’s first policy statement under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The precious metal traded at $4,342 an ounce on Wednesday, up 0.3%, after a provisional peace agreement between the United States and Iran removed a key source of risk from the market.
The accord, prepared for signing in Switzerland and flagged by President Trump as potentially opening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping by Friday, sent Brent crude briefly below $80 a barrel. Lower energy costs ease inflation fears and have dragged the dollar to a near 10-day low — a tailwind for bullion, which profits from a weaker greenback.
Attention now shifts squarely to Washington, where the Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The real market-moving event, however, will be the updated “dot plot” — the quarterly set of interest-rate projections from individual Fed officials. A prolonged hold at elevated levels would normally weigh on non-yielding gold, encouraging investors to rotate into interest-bearing assets.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Yet the calculus is more nuanced this time. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a rate hike in December has fallen from 70% to roughly 58% over the past week. That dovish shift reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and has helped sustain the metal’s rally from its early-March trough near $4,000 an ounce.
Structural demand from sovereign buyers provides an additional floor. A survey by the World Gold Council conducted between February and May found that 45% of reserve managers intend to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months — the highest reading since the polling began in 2018. A further 89% of respondents expect global central bank reserves to rise overall. Emerging-market central banks are particularly active, diversifying their currency reserves and hedging against potential sanctions, while elevated sovereign debt levels also spur purchases. China and India add heft on the physical side.
Technically, gold has reclaimed key support zones after the spring selloff. On a seven-day basis the metal has gained 6.5%, closing Tuesday at $4,361.50 an ounce. The next resistance sits near $4,381 — a level that marks the immediate upside test if the dot plot provides a dovish surprise. Still, the current price remains roughly 22% below the January high of $5,626.80.
If the Fed’s projections signal that rates will stay high for longer, gold could face a swift pullback from current levels. Should policymakers instead lay the groundwork for an easing cycle later this year, the focus will return to the robust physical demand from Central and South Asia, underpinning what remains a structurally bullish backdrop for the yellow metal.
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