Gold Holds Near $4,150 as Jobs Data and JPMorgan's Cut Put Focus on Fed Minutes
Published on 07/07/2026 at 08:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold is treading water in a narrow band around $4,150 an ounce, with traders bracing for the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes on Wednesday. The market is caught between two powerful forces: surprisingly weak US jobs data that has upended rate-hike expectations, and a sharp downward revision to JPMorgan's gold price forecast that has dampened bullish enthusiasm.
The yellow metal is currently trading at roughly $4,141, after closing Monday at $4,155.70. It has rallied 3.33% this week, building on a 2.3% gain the previous week—its strongest weekly showing in five weeks. The catalyst for the recent bounce came from June's payrolls report, which showed the US economy added just 57,000 nonfarm jobs, well short of the 110,000 that analysts had penciled in.
That miss has triggered a re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's next moves. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to 50% from 66% before the data. At the same time, markets now price a roughly 77% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at its July meeting. Fed official Kevin Warsh added to the dovish tone at the central bank's Sintra symposium, saying he sees declining inflation risks and avoiding any firm commitment on future decisions.
JPMorgan threw cold water on the rally by slashing its fourth-quarter 2026 gold target from $6,000 to $4,500 an ounce. The bank still expects a recovery later this year but cites weakening near-term demand as the reason for the downgrade. The bearish call has reinforced the resistance zone between $4,200 and $4,225 that has capped advances in recent days.
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Meanwhile, the broader macro picture is offering mixed signals. The dollar index rose about 0.3% on Tuesday, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while the yield on 10-year US Treasuries held steady at around 4.45%, eroding the appeal of the non-yielding asset. An easing in energy prices has provided some counterweight: shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has normalized after a preliminary US-Iran peace agreement, and OPEC+ has agreed to raise output quotas for next month, pushing oil prices lower and taking the heat off inflation—a positive for gold.
The ISM services purchasing managers' index slipped to 54.0 in June from 54.5 the prior month, adding to the argument for looser monetary policy, but the decline was not enough to push gold above the $4,200 threshold.
On the charts, gold is stuck between support at $4,100–$4,130 and resistance at $4,200–$4,225. The relative strength index sits at 44.7, a neutral reading that offers no clear direction. The metal is still 26.14% below its 52-week high of $5,626.80 hit in January, but only 6.52% above its 52-week low of $3,901.30 from October.
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Analysts are split. While JPMorgan has turned more cautious, UBS maintains a 12-month target as high as $5,200 an ounce. The divergence is reflected in investor behavior: gold ETFs have seen recent outflows, even as several central banks continue to buy bullion for their reserves.
Wednesday's Fed minutes will be the next big test. If the central bank signals a more restrictive path than markets have priced in, gold could break below the $4,100 floor. A more cautious tone, however, would reinforce the current stabilization and potentially set the stage for an assault on the $4,200 resistance. For now, the precious metal remains in a waiting game.
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