Gold Rides Dual Tailwinds: A 60-Day Ceasefire and a Himalayan Tariff Shock

Gold capped the week with a sharp rebound on Friday, rallying 1.57% to $4,569.90 an ounce as a confluence of geopolitical and regulatory developments reshaped the outlook for the precious metal. The weekly gain clocked in at 1.08%, but the yellow metal still ended May in the red, shedding 2.1% during a volatile month that saw prices briefly dip to $4,366.

The catalyst for Friday’s move was progress in US-Iran negotiations. Reports that both sides are closing in on a 60-day extension of the ceasefire sent crude oil prices sliding and dampened global inflation expectations across the board. That dynamic has shifted the calculus for Federal Reserve policy: with less inflationary pressure, the case for further rate hikes eases. Gold, as a non-yielding asset, thrives in that environment. Analysts note a break from the traditional pattern — rather than rallying on geopolitical turmoil as a safe haven, bullion is now benefiting from diplomatic rapprochement, because lower inflation risks stabilize the interest-rate trajectory.

Compounding the picture was a regulatory shock from Nepal. The government there doubled import duties on gold from 10% to 20%, sending the domestic price soaring. On Sunday, the cost per tola surged by 20,500 rupees to a record 311,100 rupees. The move underscores how swiftly state intervention can jolt physical gold markets. Meanwhile, Turkey is pursuing a separate initiative to pull thousands of tonnes of privately held gold into the official financial system, aiming to shore up national reserves. Past efforts of that kind have delivered mixed results, but the ambition signals sustained official-sector interest in the metal.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?

That official appetite is already a powerful counterweight to Western investor selling. While outflows from the SPDR Gold Shares ETF have totalled $5.2 billion since the start of the year, central banks continue to buy at a steady clip. China’s central bank leads the pack, and global gold demand hit a record $193 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks will purchase an average of 60 tonnes per month in the coming months — a sizable buffer against the paper-market redemptions.

Chart watchers are eyeing several key levels as the market enters a data-heavy week. The 200-day moving average, currently sitting near $4,400, is viewed as the critical floor. If gold can defend that zone, the long-term uptrend remains intact. On the downside, a nearer support lies at $4,488, while the first resistance hurdle stands at $4,580. Above that, the zone around $4,650 and then $4,786 are the next barriers. The 52-week high of $5,450 is still roughly 16% away — a rally to that level would need to break through those intermediate ceilings.

The next major test for gold comes with the US employment report in the coming week. A strong payrolls print could reinforce expectations of persistently high interest rates and pressure the metal anew. An official confirmation of the US-Iran ceasefire deal remains the key variable on the geopolitical front — Vice President JD Vance has signalled progress, but the final sign-off from the president is still pending. UBS, for its part, maintains a year-end target of $5,900, betting that structural support from central banks and a softening rate path will eventually push bullion higher.

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