Gold’s $193 Billion Quarter: Why Record Physical Demand Can’t Stop the Price Slide
Veröffentlicht: 01.05.2026 um 14:42 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between its strongest-ever physical market and a punishing macro environment. While central banks and Asian investors hoard the metal in unprecedented volumes, the spot price keeps slipping — and Wall Street strategists warn the worst may not be over.
The yellow metal traded around $4,587 on Friday, down roughly 4% on the month and sitting below its 50-day moving average. That technical breakdown reflects a market rattled by sticky inflation, rising energy costs, and the growing conviction that major central banks will keep interest rates elevated for longer. For a non-yielding asset like gold, that’s a toxic cocktail.
Yet look past the ticker, and the narrative flips entirely.
A $193 Billion Quarter — and Counting
The World Gold Council reported a record $193 billion in total gold demand for the first quarter. Central banks alone added a net 244 tonnes to their reserves — more than the previous quarter and above the five-year average. The National Bank of Poland was the standout buyer, snapping up 31 tonnes.
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On the retail side, the shift is equally dramatic. With traditional jewelry becoming too expensive for many buyers, investors are piling into bars and coins. Bar demand hit 397.7 tonnes in Q1 — a 50% surge year-on-year and the highest quarterly figure since the WGC began tracking the data. China led the charge with a 67% jump to a record 207 tonnes. Europe saw a 50% increase, while the U.S. posted a 14% gain.
The structural driver behind this wave is the long-term de-dollarization trend. Emerging-market central banks hold only a fraction of their reserves in gold and have enormous catch-up potential. A Deutsche Bank model suggests that if central banks raised their gold allocation to 40%, the price could climb toward $8,000 within five years.
The Goldman Warning: Short-Term Pain Ahead
Goldman Sachs, however, is urging caution. While the bank maintains its year-end target of $5,400 per ounce, strategists Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven warn that gold remains vulnerable to further liquidations — especially if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist and equities or bonds continue to correct. Iran’s recent ceasefire offer was rejected by President Trump, keeping geopolitical risk firmly on the table.
The current price of roughly $4,636 sits about 15% below the 52-week high of $5,450 and just under the 50-day moving average — a technical picture that reinforces the bank’s tactical caution.
Goldman lays out a wide scenario range: a prolonged Hormuz disruption combined with an equity correction could push gold as low as $3,800. On the flip side, accelerating diversification away from Western assets could drive prices as high as $6,100.
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ETFs: The Weak Link in the Chain
Not all demand channels are firing. Gold-backed ETFs saw inflows of just 62 tonnes in Q1 — a 73% drop from the same period last year. The WGC attributes this to significant outflows from U.S. funds in March, precisely when spot prices peaked. The pattern underscores how quickly Western financial investors pull the ripcord during price corrections.
Supply and the Support Line
On the supply side, mine production hit a record 885 tonnes for a first quarter. Recycling ticked up only modestly despite elevated prices — a sign of tighter overall market conditions.
For now, traders are watching the $4,500 zone as a key technical support level. If that line breaks in the coming weeks, further losses could follow. But many market observers remain bullish for year-end. J.P. Morgan forecasts an average gold price of roughly $5,050 in the fourth quarter, underpinned by sustained institutional buying. A Reuters poll of 31 analysts put the 2026 median at $4,916 — the highest annual figure ever recorded in the survey since its inception in 2012.
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