Gold’s $4,570 Stability Masks a Bitter Analyst Battle as China Imports Jump and Inflation Lingers

The gold market ended last week on a firm note, but the calm above $4,500 disguises a fierce tug-of-war between bullish physical demand and stubborn macroeconomic headwinds. Bullion rose 1.57% on Friday to $4,569.90, posting a second consecutive daily gain and a weekly advance of 1.08%. Yet the yellow metal remains 0.54% lower on the month and roughly 16% below its 52-week peak of $5,450.

That gap partly reflects the extraordinary divergence in institutional forecasts. Goldman Sachs sees gold at $5,400 by the end of 2026, while an older JPMorgan call targets $6,000 to $6,300. At the opposite extreme, S&P Global projects a drop to $2,500 in 2026 and as low as $2,100 the following year. UBS recently trimmed its year-end 2026 estimate from $5,900 to $5,500. The chasm between $2,100 and $6,300 explains why traders are on edge – every data point or headline gets magnified.

Physical demand provides a concrete counterweight to the bearish scenario. China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong surged 81.2% in April to 86.7 tonnes, underscoring that Asian appetite for bullion remains a powerful force. That real-world buying helps explain why prices have held above the psychologically important $4,500 level even as uncertainty swirls.

The near-term outlook, however, is clouded by two competing forces: geopolitical détente and persistent inflation. Unconfirmed reports from four people familiar with the matter suggest a proposed deal between Washington and Tehran that would extend a ceasefire by 60 days and ease shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Neither President Trump nor Iranian state media have confirmed the arrangement. A verified truce would reduce gold’s safe-haven premium, but the mere prospect of de-escalation pressured the US dollar – which was on track for a weekly loss – offering the precious metal short-term support.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?

The larger drag is coming from US inflation data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday that the PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in April, keeping the annual rate at 3.8%. Core PCE, which excludes energy and food, came in at 3.3% year-on-year. Gold carries no yield, so sticky inflation that keeps the Federal Reserve in restrictive mode raises the opportunity cost of holding the metal. The next PCE release is not due until June 25, leaving the market to parse Fed commentary, dollar moves, and oil prices in the interim.

Physical demand elsewhere offers little relief. India’s gold buying remains subdued because of elevated prices and import duties, while premiums in China have narrowed, suggesting caution even among the world’s top consumers.

Technically, the recovery still looks fragile. Gold closed Friday just below its 50-day moving average of $4,639. The relative strength index sits at a neutral 49.8. Immediate resistance stands at $4,587 and $4,643, while support is marked at $4,436 and $4,341. A sustained move above the moving average would signal renewed bullish momentum; a slip back under $4,500 would brand the rally as a short-lived bounce after a volatile week.

Gold at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Monday’s session will be pivotal. A firm hold above $4,500 would reinforce Friday’s signal, while a quick reversal would confirm that the market remains locked in a battle between China’s physical appetite, an unconfirmed ceasefire, and inflation that refuses to fade.

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