Gold’s Recovery Gains Traction as 41-Tonne Central Bank Haul and Shock Jobs Miss Counter Brutal Quarter
Published on 07/03/2026 at 21:25 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold has clawed its way back from the steepest quarterly decline in 13 years, drawing support from a surprisingly soft US jobs report and a sustained buying spree by global central banks. The yellow metal changed hands near $4,187 an ounce on Monday, extending a weekly gain of more than 2% after brushing off the worst of the second?quarter rout.
The immediate catalyst came Friday, when the US Labor Department reported that the economy added just 57,000 new jobs in June – far below expectations. That disappointment sent bullion climbing past $4,182.50 and reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve could eventually ease its grip on interest rates, even though policymakers have signalled no such move is imminent.
Central Banks Keep Buying While ETFs Bleed
Beneath the price action, institutional demand continues to act as a powerful floor. Data from the World Gold Council show that central banks added a net 41 tonnes to their reserves in May alone. Poland’s National Bank was the most aggressive buyer, snapping up 18 tonnes, while the People’s Bank of China increased its holdings by a further 10 tonnes – its twentieth consecutive monthly purchase.
Those figures are part of a broader trend. In the first quarter of 2026, official institutions acquired 244 tonnes of gold worldwide, up sharply from 208 tonnes in the preceding quarter and well above the long?term average. The buying, however, is not universal. Turkey has been selling portions of its reserves to support the embattled lira, and Russia continues to liquidate holdings under the weight of international sanctions.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Analysts at the World Gold Council argue that this structural demand from long?term investors and central banks should help stabilise the market in the second half of the year, even as exchange?traded funds remain net sellers.
Geopolitical DĂ©tente Eases Inflation Fears
Developments far from the trading floor are also shifting the calculus. Negotiations between the United States and Iran have shown tangible progress, and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is returning to normal. The resulting slide in oil prices has dragged down headline inflation expectations, delivering a mixed message for gold.
Lower inflation reduces the metal’s appeal as a straightforward hedge against rising prices. Yet at the same time, it gives the Fed more room to pivot, should the economy weaken further. Newly installed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh recently acknowledged that inflation risks are declining, though he reiterated the central bank’s unwavering commitment to price stability.
Goldman Cuts Its Year?End Forecast
Against this uncertain backdrop, Goldman Sachs has trimmed its outlook. The bank now expects gold to reach $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, down from an earlier projection of $5,400. The revision reflects the view that the Fed will not cut rates this year, a stance reinforced by the fact that the economy still created 57,000 jobs in June – a level that, while disappointing, is hardly recessionary.
Gold at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Even so, Goldman’s analysts remain structurally bullish over the longer term, arguing that geopolitical tensions will continue to drive strategic allocations into gold.
The immediate technical picture suggests the metal faces a test at the $4,200 resistance level. A clean break above that threshold could open the path toward its 50?day moving average. With the price still roughly 4% lower on the year and more than $1,400 below the January record of $5,626, the recovery has plenty of ground to cover – but the combination of central bank support and a less hawkish macro backdrop is giving traders reason to believe the worst may be over.
Ad
Gold Stock: New Analysis - 3 July
Fresh Gold information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
