Gold’s Reserve Supremacy Reaches 27% as Goldman Strikes $500 Off Its Forecast
28.06.2026 - 19:54:38 | boerse-global.de
A dramatic schism is opening in the gold market. Wall Street’s most influential investment bank has just slashed its price outlook by half a thousand dollars, yet the world’s central banks are buying bullion at a pace not seen in decades. The result: gold is clinging to $4,103.70 an ounce, a level that leaves it both technically vulnerable and structurally supported.
Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end 2026 target for gold to $4,900 per troy ounce from $5,400, citing a far more hawkish Federal Reserve than previously assumed. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, nine members of the Federal Open Market Committee are now open to additional rate hikes in 2026. Goldman has pushed back its forecast for the first rate cut from late 2026 to the second half of 2027. The stronger dollar that accompanies such tightening — the dollar index is hovering near the 100 mark — makes the non-yielding metal more expensive for overseas buyers and exerts persistent downward pressure.
Yet central banks are voting with their feet in the opposite direction. Official gold holdings have reached their highest level since 1975, surpassing 36,000 tonnes. In the first quarter alone, net purchases totalled 244 tonnes. The structural shift in reserve composition is historic: gold now accounts for 27% of global official reserves, overtaking US Treasuries, which have slipped to 22%. Policymakers in Poland, China, and India are leading the charge to reduce dollar dependence, and a recent survey found that nearly half of all central banks plan to add to their gold holdings over the next year — a record proportion. JPMorgan, more bullish than its rival, maintains a long-term target of $6,000 an ounce.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Latest price action reflects the tug-of-war. On Friday, gold climbed 1.54% after softer-than-feared US inflation data offered a reprieve. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.4% month-on-month overall, while the core measure met expectations at 0.3%. That helped ease some of the anxiety that had built after recent hawkish Fed signals prompted traders to scale back bets on a September rate cut. Still, the metal is down nearly 8% for the month and has lost 1.66% in the past week. Its relative-strength index sits at 37.3 — technically oversold but not yet flashing a clear buy signal, and the price remains below the 50-day moving average, suggesting a sustainable break higher has yet to materialise.
Technicians see the $4,000 level as a critical floor, one that has held so far. Should it give way, the next support lies around $3,700. On the upside, resistance is clustered between $4,200 and $4,400. The week ahead is packed with US data that could tip the scales either way. Monday brings the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, followed by JOLTS job openings on Tuesday. The main event is Friday’s non-farm payrolls report for June. A strong employment print would reinforce the Fed’s restrictive stance and likely send gold lower again.
Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz provided a modest safe-haven bid over the weekend. Meanwhile, the physical market in Southeast Asia has begun to decouple: local bar premiums have risen even as the global benchmark corrected, indicating that on-the-ground demand in that region remains robust despite the macro headwinds.
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Gold Stock: New Analysis - 28 June
Fresh Gold information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
