Gold’s Two-Front War: Central Bank Hoarding at Record Pace vs. Hawkish Fed Pressure
Veröffentlicht: 29.06.2026 um 11:34 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold finds itself caught between two powerful and opposing forces. On one side, central banks are hoarding the metal at an unprecedented clip — buying 244 tonnes in the first quarter alone, a 17% jump from the prior quarter. On the other, a hawkish Federal Reserve is pushing interest rates higher, strengthening the dollar and raising the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yield asset. The result is a market where the physical floor is rising even as speculative appetite wilts.
The Dollar Exodus Accelerates
The flight from the US dollar is no longer a fringe concern. According to a recent central bank survey, 61% of respondents now view US sovereign debt as a threat to the global reserve currency — up from just 20% in 2024. That pace of erosion is the fastest ever recorded in the survey’s history. The World Gold Council’s data backs up the sentiment: 45% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next twelve months, a record share. Since 2022, official sector buying has averaged roughly 1,000 tonnes annually.
Poland and Uzbekistan led the charge in the first quarter, while private investors joined in too. Global demand for coins and bars hit 474 tonnes in Q1, the second-highest tally on record. Goldman Sachs projects average monthly central bank purchases of 60 tonnes for the rest of the year, signaling that the structural bid is far from exhausted.
The Fed Pushes Back
Yet none of that physical demand has been enough to stop the price from retreating. Gold has lost about 9% over the past month, settling around $4,067 per ounce on Monday. On a year-over-year basis it still carries a robust 23% gain, but the momentum is clearly shifting.
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The headwind originates squarely in Washington. The Fed’s latest inflation forecast was revised sharply higher to 3.6% for 2026, up from a prior estimate of 2.7%, after the PCE price index accelerated to 4.1% in May. Chair Kevin Warsh has maintained a hawkish stance, and the market now prices in three rate increases this cycle. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a September move at just below 60%, while other market pricing has edged that figure to 62%. Higher rates have pushed the dollar to a one-year high, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers and damping international demand.
Geopolitical Paradox
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East — typically a tailwind for gold — have actually added to the pressure. The recent escalation between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices surging, but the mechanism backfired on the precious metal. Higher oil stokes inflation, which strengthens the case for tighter Fed policy. After Iran attacked ships and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, the US responded with counterstrikes, but both sides have since paused offensive operations. Diplomatic talks are set to begin in Doha this week, with Iran’s Foreign Minister insisting that responsibility for the strait lies solely with Tehran. The détente has temporarily eased safe-haven bids.
What Comes Next
All eyes are now on Thursday’s US nonfarm payrolls report. A strong print would solidify rate-hike expectations and pile more pressure on gold. A weaker number, however, could give the Fed room to soften its tone. The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index will also provide clues on economic momentum.
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Long-term, the outlook remains decidedly bullish. J.P. Morgan sees gold reaching $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 and $6,300 in 2027. For now, the tug-of-war between central bank accumulation and monetary tightening continues, with the $4,000 level emerging as the key battleground.
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