Gold's Two-Front War: Rate Hike Bets and Iran Deal Pressure Overwhelm Central Bank Buying
Veröffentlicht: 27.06.2026 um 03:11 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold is posting gains on Friday, nudging back to $4,091, but the relief is fragile. The precious metal has shed nearly 2% on the week and stands almost 6% lower since the start of 2026. At 27% below its January record of $5,627, the market is grappling with a stark disconnect: central banks are hoarding the metal at near-record pace, yet the price keeps sliding.
The buying spree from official institutions is impossible to ignore. In the first quarter of 2026, central banks around the world added a net 244 tonnes to their reserves, exceeding both the previous quarter and the five-year average. Poland led the charge, snapping up 31 tonnes in the period — including 20 tonnes in February alone — pushing its total stash past 570 tonnes. China’s PBoC lifted its holdings to 2,313 tonnes and has continued to buy in subsequent months. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have also been aggressive accumulators. This structural, dollar-diversification bid is providing a floor, but it is not enough to lift the price.
Two macro forces are crushing the upside. First, the Federal Reserve remains firmly in tightening mode. Markets now price a 63% chance of a rate hike in September and an 80% probability for December, with the robust economy and sticky PCE inflation taking any 2026 cuts off the table. Second, a diplomatic breakthrough on June 17 — a preliminary Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran that halts military operations and reopens the Strait of Hormuz — has drained the safe-haven premium. Speculative capital that piled into gold as a geopolitical hedge is now exiting rapidly.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Wall Street is recalibrating. Goldman Sachs, which had previously held out for rate cuts, stripped all easing from its 2026 forecast and slashed its year-end gold target from $5,400 to $4,900 on June 20. J.P. Morgan and Bank of America remain more bullish, still calling for $6,000, while Morgan Stanley pegs fair value at $5,200. Yet the technical picture is deteriorating. The RSI has slipped to 37, and the metal is trading roughly 8.5% below its 50-day moving average. Traders are eyeing support at $3,960; a break could open the door to $3,880.
On the supply side, Russia has re-emerged as a seller for the first time in years, offloading six tonnes in April as war costs and budget deficits bite. That adds a modest but symbolic headwind. Meanwhile, German dealers report a surge in retail demand for small bars and coins — bargain hunters trying to catch a falling knife.
The next key test arrives on July 2, when the US releases its monthly employment report. A stronger-than-expected reading would likely push bond yields even higher, putting fresh pressure on the zero-yielding asset. Weaker numbers, in contrast, could provide a temporary reprieve. The fundamental tug-of-war between voracious central bank buying and hawkish macro forces suggests that until either the Fed blinks or the Iran deal stalls, gold will remain trapped in its current range — just above the $4,000 psychological floor, but far from the highs of January.
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