Gold Slips as Surging US Data Trump Middle East Tensions, Even as Central Banks Hoard Record Tonnage
Veröffentlicht: 02.06.2026 um 04:52 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold finds itself in an unusual tug-of-war. Despite escalating conflict in the Middle East and a fresh spike in oil prices, the precious metal ended Monday at $4,520.20 per ounce, down 1.09% from Friday’s close of $4,569.90. The selloff underscores a rare scenario: the US dollar is currently outranking gold as the market’s preferred haven, and robust American economic data is reinforcing that preference.
The dollar’s strength comes courtesy of a surprisingly hot US manufacturing sector. The ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index jumped to 54.0 in May, its highest reading since May 2022, while the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI also beat expectations at 55.1. Those numbers reshape the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus: a resilient economy reduces the urgency for monetary easing, which typically supports gold. The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, and market participants see roughly a 50% chance of at least one increase before year-end. Higher yield expectations translate into a firmer dollar, making gold more expensive for international buyers and dulling its appeal.
Yet beneath the surface, physical demand for the yellow metal is anything but weak. The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record $193 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up 74% year-on-year, even though tonnage rose just 2% to 1,231 tonnes. Central banks continued their buying spree, adding an estimated 244 tonnes in the quarter—above the five-year average and up 3% from a year earlier. Poland led the pack again, with its central bank purchasing 31 tonnes to take total reserves to 582 tonnes, despite governor Adam Glapi?ski’s public musings about possible sales. China added 7 tonnes (now 2,313 tonnes, equivalent to 9% of the People’s Bank’s total reserves), and new buyers appeared: Guatemala, Indonesia and Malaysia entered the market, some for the first time.
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Retail investors are piling in as well. Demand for gold bars and investment coins surged 42% to 474 tonnes—the second-highest quarterly figure on record—driven mainly by Asian buyers. The Royal Mint reported a 94% jump in sales of gold products, while China simultaneously cut its holdings of US Treasuries to the lowest level since 2008. In contrast, jewelry demand tumbled 23%, with China down 32%, India 18%, and the Middle East 23%, as record prices priced out many consumers. Technology-related demand edged up 1% to 82 tonnes, supported by AI infrastructure.
Geopolitical jitters, meanwhile, have failed to provide the customary tailwind. Over the weekend, indirect US-Iran exchanges over extending a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz produced no clear breakthrough, and Tehran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Iran had halted the informal channel altogether. Israel’s stepped-up military operations in Lebanon and fresh US strikes on Iranian facilities—described by CENTCOM as self-defense—prompted Tehran to threaten a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. Brent and WTI jumped as much as 8%, but gold barely budged higher. The classic safe-haven playbook is broken for now, as investors focus on the dollar and rising rate expectations.
Technically, the picture remains cautious. Gold is trading 2.57% below its short-term moving average, with the next major resistance at $4,829.59. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 49.8, showing no extreme overbought or oversold conditions, while annualized volatility measures 18.81%. From the January high of $5,450, the metal has corrected roughly 17% — a significant pullback that still leaves the longer-term uptrend intact.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on Friday’s US jobs report. If the May data confirms continued labor-market strength, combined with higher oil prices and sticky inflation, rate-hike expectations could harden further. J.P. Morgan Global Research expects the Fed to hold rates steady for the rest of 2026, with the next move being a 25-basis-point increase as early as the third quarter of 2027. The next FOMC meeting on June 16–17 will signal whether chair Kevin Warsh is ready to abandon any lingering easing bias. On the supply side, mine production is expected to grow modestly this year, though potential diesel shortages in Oceania and Asia could cap output. For now, gold is trapped between a rock and a hard place: geopolitical risk on one side, a hot US economy and a muscular dollar on the other. Until it can reclaim its key moving averages, the dollar factor will continue to dominate.
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