Gold Swings as Iran Ceasefire Hopes Clash with Stubborn Inflation and Hawkish Fed Signals
Published on 06/15/2026 at 07:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold staged a sharp recovery on Monday, jumping more than 2% to around $4,304 an ounce after a preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran sparked a broad market shift. The rally snapped a period of weakness for the metal, but the backdrop remains unusually complex — and the very forces that lifted gold also highlight why gains may be fragile.
The draft accord, set for formal signing by President Trump next Friday in Switzerland, calls for an end to hostilities, the lifting of the US naval blockade, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It also unfreezes roughly $24 billion in Iranian assets. The geopolitical thaw sent Brent crude tumbling about 4% to near $84 a barrel, easing inflation fears. The US dollar slid to a ten-day low, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers and stoking demand.
Yet the same inflation relief that boosted gold on Monday contradicts data released just days earlier. The US consumer price index for May rose 4.2% year-on-year — the highest in over three years — driven by a 23.5% surge in energy costs. Normally, such inflation would bolster gold as a store of value, but the mechanism has flipped. Markets now see the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, with the CME FedWatch Tool putting the odds of a December rate hike at 47%, down from 69% before the deal. Still, real yields are climbing and a stronger dollar earlier this month kept gold under pressure; the metal closed last week at $4,239.70, down 2.6% in seven days. It remains roughly 25% below its January all-time high of $5,626.80.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
The European Central Bank added to the headwinds on June 11 by lifting its deposit rate to 2.25%, the first increase in nearly three years, citing inflation pressures from the US-Iran conflict. Goldman Sachs now expects no rate cuts this year and has pushed its first move to 2027. All eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 16-17, where the new dot plot under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will be the key event. The probability of a hold stands at 97.1%, but if policymakers shift the first cut projection entirely into 2027, gold could face renewed selling.
Technical resistance sits at $4,415, roughly $100 above current levels. The relative strength index at 36 suggests the metal is not overbought, leaving room for further upside if the peace deal holds. Silver climbed over 3% to above $70 an ounce, while platinum and palladium also logged gains of similar magnitude.
Underpinning the market is robust central bank demand. Goldman Sachs revised its tracking model in May, finding that sovereign purchases had been underestimated since August 2025. Central banks bought around 66 tons in January alone, and Goldman expects monthly purchases to average 60 tons in the second half of the year. JP Morgan maintains a medium-term bullish view, citing structural diversification, while Oxford Economics sees May as possibly the inflation peak for 2026, with a slowdown later in the year that could recalibrate the Fed’s rate path. For gold, that would mark the pivotal turning point — but for now, the metal is caught between a peace dividend and a hawkish monetary reality.
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