Hensoldt: mwb Ends Sell Rating as Frigate Blow Deepens 24% Rout, but Record Orders Offer Counterweight
28.06.2026 - 19:54:38 | boerse-global.de
When Hensoldt’s chief executive Oliver Dörre bought 2,500 shares of his own company at the end of June, it was meant as a vote of confidence. The market barely blinked. The stock continued its slide, hitting a fresh 52-week low of €63.12 on Thursday, before closing Friday at €64.96 — still down nearly 24% over the past month. The trigger for the selloff: the German defence ministry’s surprise cancellation of the multibillion-euro F126 frigate programme, a flagship naval project in which Hensoldt played a key role.
Analysts at mwb research have now taken a more cautious step toward a neutral stance. On Friday they upgraded the stock from “Sell” to “Hold”, keeping the price target unchanged at €62 — a level that actually sits below Friday’s closing price. The move is less a bullish call than an acknowledgment that the worst of the selling pressure may have priced in the risks. “The recent discount sufficiently captures the headwinds from the defence cycle,” the research house noted, while still flagging rising competition, particularly from Saab in the radar business.
Operational strength stands in contrast
Beneath the market turmoil, Hensoldt’s underlying business tells a different story. First?quarter order intake more than doubled to €1,483 million, swelling the total backlog to €9,801 million. The company raised its 2026 free cash flow guidance in early June, now targeting roughly 50% of adjusted EBITDA — up from the previous 40% — driven by faster procurement processes in Germany. For the full year, management expects revenue of around €2,750 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5?19.0%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Beyond the flagship numbers, the group continues to expand. A new logistics centre for spare parts is set to open in Wolfhagen in early autumn. And in Ukraine, Hensoldt’s high?performance radars are being integrated into the “FREYJA” missile?defence system being developed by local firm Fire Point, with first interceptors expected this year. These projects could help offset the F126 loss, though neither provides the immediate order flow investors are demanding.
Technical picture remains fragile
The relative strength index sits at 31.8, deep in oversold territory, but the stock still trades more than 20% below its 200?day moving average. Annualised 30?day volatility has climbed to 56%. No near?term catalysts are on the horizon — the half?year report is not due until July 31, and this week Hensoldt is attending two industry events (the Counter UAS Tech Middle East in Amman and the Helicopter Forum in Bückeburg) where no capital?markets content is planned.
mwb’s upgrade from Sell to Hold is effectively a tactical pause rather than a call to buy. The analyst team remains wary of competitive pressure in radar and the broader defence?cycle risks, but sees the current price as more fairly reflecting both the operational achievements and the shocks that have pummelled the stock. Whether record order books and an improved cash?flow outlook can outweigh the loss of a major naval programme will be the central question in the weeks ahead.
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