Hensoldt’s Management Buys the Dip as Analysts Clash Over Fair Value and a Key Radar Contract Slips Away
Published on 07/13/2026 at 13:36 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Hensoldt’s top executives are voting with their wallets. In the midst of a sharp stock decline and a lost radar deal, two board members have snapped up shares worth several hundred thousand euros, sending a clear signal of confidence from inside the company. Oliver Dörre, a member of the executive board, made multiple purchases at prices ranging from €63 to nearly €70, while fellow board member Inka Tews also bought in, albeit with smaller volumes. Market observers typically read such insider activity during a weak patch as a bullish sign, though so far it has done little to arrest the sell-off.
The stock closed last Friday at €74.66 and now trades at €73.58, bringing the weekly decline to more than 8%. Over the past seven trading sessions the loss amounts to 6.68%, and the share price sits roughly 35% below its 52-week high of €115.10 reached last October.
The selling pressure stems in part from a significant competitive blow. Saab secured the radar package for the planned MEKO A-200 frigates as well as the IRIS-T SLS system, a contract that had been seen as Hensoldt’s to lose given its status as a national champion in German defence projects. Critics argue the loss undermines the premium valuation the stock had built up.
That premium came under direct fire on 9 July when MWB Research downgraded Hensoldt from Hold to Sell, slashing its price target to €62. The research house described the pre-NATO-summit rally from €64 to roughly €81 as a “rally without contracts,” noting that no new orders or budget allocations materialised to justify the move. At approximately 18 times expected 2026 EBIT, MWB argues the stock is simply too expensive, especially with lucrative tenders slipping to rivals.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Jefferies takes the opposite view. The investment bank lifted its price target from €90 to €94 and reiterates a Buy rating, pointing to a structural shift in defence spending away from heavy hardware and toward complex electronics and air defence – precisely Hensoldt’s core competency. The divergence between the two analysts could hardly be starker, and the gap between their targets – €62 versus €94 – underscores the uncertainty surrounding the stock.
Behind the conflicting calls, the company’s operational backbone remains solid. Hensoldt ended the first quarter with an order intake of €1.483 billion and a record order backlog of €9.8 billion. The book-to-bill ratio stood at a robust 3.0x. Management has reaffirmed its full-year guidance for 2026, targeting revenue of roughly €2.75 billion and an EBITDA margin between 18.5% and 19.0%. In early June the company raised its free cash flow conversion forecast from 40% to around 50% of adjusted EBITDA.
The technical picture reflects the market’s unease. The stock trades below both its 50-day moving average of €76.81 and its 200-day line of €79.79. Annualised volatility exceeds 55%, highlighting persistent nervousness. The relative strength index sits at 49.8, neutral territory.
Hensoldt at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
All eyes now turn to 31 July, when Hensoldt publishes its half-year results. The numbers will reveal whether the first-quarter momentum has carried through and how quickly management can absorb the Saab contract loss. Until then, the stock remains caught between robust fundamentals and insider conviction on one side, and intensifying competition and sceptical analyst voices on the other.
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Hensoldt Stock: New Analysis - 13 July
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