Hensoldt's Order Backlog Tops €9.8 Billion, Yet Stock Remains Stuck Below Key Resistance
Veröffentlicht: 01.07.2026 um 17:14 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
European defense stocks roared back to life on Wednesday, pulling Hensoldt along for the ride as the sector snapped a lengthy losing streak. The shares gained 4.74% to €71.20, a welcome reprieve after weeks of persistent selling pressure. The catalyst, however, came not from the company itself but from a broader industry rally led by Rheinmetall, which reclaimed the psychologically important €1,000 mark.
The bounce, while sharp, does little to repair the technical damage accumulated over recent months. Hensoldt hit a 52-week low of €63.12 on 26 June, and the current price still sits some 39% below the 52-week high of €115.10. On a 30-day view, the stock is down 16%. The moving averages tell a similar story: the 50-day line at €76.67 and the 200-day line at €81.15 both lie well above the current trading level, creating formidable resistance for any sustained recovery. With the relative strength index at 44.8, there is room for further upside from a purely momentum perspective, but the path to a genuine trend change remains steep.
What sets Hensoldt apart from a purely sentiment-driven rally is the strength of its underlying business. Orders for the first quarter of 2026 surged to €1.483 billion, more than double the year-ago figure, pushing the total order backlog to €9.801 billion. Revenue rose to €496 million, while adjusted EBITDA reached €44 million. Management has confirmed full-year guidance of around €2.75 billion in sales and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5–19.0%, with the book-to-bill ratio expected to land between 1.5x and 2.0x.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
In early June, Hensoldt upgraded its outlook for adjusted free cash flow conversion to approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA, up from an earlier projection of around 40%. The improvement reflects higher customer prepayments driven by accelerated procurement processes in Germany, which should also help offset the cash outlay for the recently completed Nedinsco acquisition. Net debt leverage is expected to remain at roughly 1.5x.
The political backdrop continues to support the defense narrative. Germany’s 2026 federal budget allocates roughly €82.7 billion to defense spending, an increase of about €29.4 billion from the previous financial plan. The NATO spending quota is projected to hit 2.8% in 2026 and rise to 3.5% by 2029. Those figures lend credence to Hensoldt’s long-term demand outlook, even if the stock price has yet to reflect the trajectory.
For now, the rally remains a corrective bounce within an intact downtrend. Year-to-date losses stand at roughly 7%, with the 12-month decline at 23%. Overcoming the 50?day average around €76 will be the first test of whether the sector’s renewed optimism can translate into a real turnaround — or whether the stock succumbs again to the selling pressure that has dominated the past quarter.
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