Hensoldt’s Record Backlog and €200M Setback Leave Analysts with a €32 Gap
Published on 07/20/2026 at 11:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Hensoldt’s order book has never been fatter, but a single cancelled frigate programme has exposed a rift in how the market values Germany’s defence-electronics champion. Analysts are now poles apart on the stock, with Jefferies raising its price target to €94 the same day mwb research slapped a “Sell” rating and a €62 target on the shares — a chasm of €32 that underscores how differently investors are weighing the company’s mixed signals.
The catalyst for the divergence is the Bundeswehr’s abrupt shift in naval procurement. In late June the defence ministry scrapped the F126 frigate programme, for which Hensoldt was due to supply its TRS-4D radar, and pivoted instead to four MEKO A-200?class vessels. The budget committee of the Bundestag formalised the change on 8 July as part of a €9.5 billion package covering 16 procurement projects. For Hensoldt, that meant a specific radar order worth roughly €200 million simply evaporated. The company, however, has played down the blow, arguing that the TRS-4D is a platform?agnostic product family and that the loss does not threaten its near?term or medium?term guidance.
Against this backdrop, BlackRock has been quietly tightening its grip on the stock. According to a regulatory filing on 17 July, the US asset manager lifted its direct voting rights in Hensoldt from 2.81% to 3.17%, while its total position — including financial instruments — crept to 4.997%, just below the 5% disclosure threshold. The gradual buildup of a direct stake is widely read as a signal of longer?term conviction, particularly since it reduces reliance on derivative positions and gives BlackRock a more immediate say in shareholder matters.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Operationally, Hensoldt’s core business remains on a strong trajectory. In the first quarter of 2026, order intake doubled to €1,483 million from €701 million a year earlier, pushing the order backlog to a record €9.8 billion. Revenue for the quarter rose 15% to €496 million. Management seized on the momentum in early June by lifting its guidance for adjusted free cash flow, now targeting a cash?conversion rate of roughly 50% of adjusted EBITDA, up from around 40%. The annual general meeting in May had already approved a 10% higher dividend of €0.55 per share for fiscal 2025.
Beyond the financials, Hensoldt is also investing in its technological future. On 15 July the group took a stake in “Project Q,” a defence?tech startup focused on software?centric systems and multi?domain integration — a move that aligns with its push to extend beyond traditional hardware. A few weeks earlier, it opened a new logistics centre in Wolfhagen for the Bundeswehr’s “Zentrale Ersatzteillogistik” project, due to go live in September.
At the market close on Friday, Hensoldt shares stood at €76.10, up 4.48% on the day and roughly 5% higher over the past 30 trading sessions. Even so, the stock remains almost 34% below its 52?week high of €115.10, hit in early October 2025. With the half?year report due on 31 July, the coming days will test whether the raised targets can hold their ground against the noise from the naval restructuring — and whether BlackRock’s bet is shared by the wider market.
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