Hensoldt’s Technical Breakout Clashes With a Sky-High Price Tag
31.05.2026 - 13:21:52 | boerse-global.de
Shares in Hensoldt have stormed 17.6% higher over the past month, closing Friday at €87.90 — a gain of 15% since the start of the year. The defence electronics group smashed through its 200-day moving average in mid-May and has stayed above the €83.83 threshold ever since, a clear bullish signal that has chart watchers’ attention fixed on the next resistance level at €92.80, the six-month high from January.
Yet for all the technical momentum, the valuation remains a sticking point. At nearly 96 times trailing earnings, the stock is pricing in perfection. Even on the more forgiving 2026 consensus, the forward price-to-earnings ratio sits at around 47 — still among the most expensive in the European defence sector. “The market is demanding operational proof,” one analyst noted, pointing to the need for Hensoldt to convert its record order book into revenue and cash flow without margin erosion.
That order book is a bright spot. The company entered 2026 with a backlog of €9.8 billion, buoyed by large contracts for Puma, Schakal and Eurofighter radar systems. First-quarter order intake more than doubled to €1.48 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose to €44 million, lifting the margin from 7.6% to 8.9%. The optronics division in particular emerged as a new profit driver, with segment EBITDA jumping to €12 million and its margin soaring by over eleven percentage points to 12.2%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Management expects full-year 2026 revenue of around €2.75 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5% to 19%. Analysts are pencilling in €3.21 billion in sales for 2027 and net income of €243 million. But delivering on those numbers will require efficient execution, especially as the company ramps up capacity. Free cash flow remains under scrutiny, and a capital increase in May — shares placed with institutional investors to strengthen the balance sheet — added a temporary drag on the stock.
The analyst community is split on where the equity goes from here. JPMorgan keeps a neutral stance with a fair-value estimate of €85, while Deutsche Bank struck a more optimistic note, raising its price target to €101. The wide gap underscores the uncertainty around how quickly Hensoldt can translate its mountainous backlog into earnings per share, particularly after the dilutive share placement.
All eyes now turn to the half-year results due on July 31. Those numbers will determine whether the recent technical rally has fundamental backing — or whether the stock has simply run ahead of itself. Until then, the key support at €83.70 remains the line in the sand for the bullish case.
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