Inside the Micron Paradox: Record HBM Demand, a $9.3 Billion Factory, and a Stock That Keeps Falling
Veröffentlicht: 07.07.2026 um 19:02 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Micron Technology finds itself in an unusual position—its high-bandwidth memory chips are effectively sold out through 2026, it just broke ground on a $9.3 billion factory in Japan, and it posted a quarter that saw revenue surge 345% year over year. Yet the stock has shed roughly a quarter of its value from the all-time high set less than two weeks ago. The disconnect between booming operations and market sentiment has never been wider.
Shares closed at €827.50 on Tuesday, down 4% on the session and extending the weekly slide past 18%. That marks a decline of about 25% from the 52-week peak of €1,103.80 reached on June 25. Even after the pullback, the stock has more than nine-bagged from last August’s trough of €90.64 and still shows a year-to-date gain of nearly 200%. The annualised volatility stands above 111%, underscoring the jitters gripping the market. The relative strength index of 46.2 sits in neutral territory, while the price is just 6% above the 50-day moving average and more than 100% above the 200-day line of €398.51—a chasm that points to a sharp reassessment under way.
The foundational story remains formidable. Micron’s entire output of HBM memory is pre-sold for the next two years, and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has indicated the shortage is likely to extend well beyond 2026. The fiscal third quarter, which ended May 28, delivered revenue of $41.46 billion and adjusted net income of $28.86 billion. The adjusted gross margin hit 84.9%. For the current quarter, management guided for revenue around $50 billion and a margin of roughly 86%. Micron is already shipping HBM4 in volume and expects to start mass production of the next-generation HBM4E in 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Micron?
To keep pace with demand, the company is investing heavily in new capacity. The latest project is a $9.3 billion HBM factory in Higashi-Hiroshima, Japan, where the first wafers were produced on July 4. The Japanese government is contributing up to $3.3 billion in subsidies, and first deliveries from the expanded lines are expected by summer 2028. Japan is just one piece of a global build-out: Micron is constructing two advanced facilities in Idaho, planning up to four more in New York, and aims to bring 40% of its DRAM output to the United States. It also added a wafer fab in Singapore in January and acquired Powerchip’s Tongluo-P5 plant in Taiwan in March.
For all the aggressive expansion, the memory industry’s cyclical demons are stirring. Every previous boom has eventually given way to a brutal price collapse, and analysts are beginning to flag the risk of severe overcapacity by 2027 or 2028 as competitors pour billions into new factories in parallel. While long-term AI contracts could soften the landing, the specter of the so-called hog cycle—the industry’s boom-and-bust rhythm—is creeping back into investor calculations.
The enormous market capitalisation of roughly €965 billion leaves almost no margin for error. In a sector where sharp profit-taking and violent corrections are part of the DNA, the current sell-off may be simply the market recalibrating expectations against a backdrop of record profits and capacity planning that will take years to bear fruit. For now, the company’s operating engine is running at full throttle, but the stock is being priced on the fear that the road ahead is turning.
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